In more than four decades of watching Wall Street hi-jinks, I’ve seen more bogus “buy” recommendations than I’ve had hot egg breakfasts. That crazy Tesla buy piece making the rounds? It’s the worst form of carnival song and dance, like a guy in the desert wearing a tutu waving a stick chanting “I predict rain”.

Let me tell you something about markets that’s been true since trading floors had actual floors, not sock-puppets on Twitter spilling fraud as advice: a falling price isn’t a buy signal on its own, because it’s often a market finally reacting, as markets are supposed to do.

A true Alpha of the market won’t be the loudest, most aggressive, or most dominant, which all are misconceptions based on flawed studies of captive wolves. In the wild, the Alpha wolf (male or female) is simply a pack’s leadership figure, the adult who protects the children, makes prudent decisions for pack welfare, and demonstrates “quiet confidence” rather than brash aggression. Real Alphas don’t need to assert dominance; they lead by example and put their pack’s interests ahead of their own.

With this in mind, any recommendation telling you to buy because a stock dropped 26% and has an RSI of 26 has to be in context of dangers. Telling you to buy a house that cheaper than last month also has to mention it was built by a racist South African to launder his blood money, using unqualified temporary staff, on the edge of an ocean cliff expected to wash away in the next 12 months. A house is about to drop into oblivion. Who thinks that price will go up?

I’ve watched too many “smart” self-described “Alphas” hazardously tell people to chase discounts all the way to zero. When I see a stock drop that much, I don’t think “fire sale” (literally, in the case of death-trap Tesla) – I think “why is this so bad and who is gets hurt?”

Here’s what’s missing from the hollow investor recommendation:

Show the analysis of Tesla’s actual vehicles. ACTUAL vehicle analysis by actual technologists. Real traders know a company is only as good as what it’s selling, and real technologists know Tesla hasn’t had a clue about how to make a product since 2012. If what Tesla’s pushing out the factory door gets worse by the quarter and putting lives at risk, for OVER A DECADE (the Woz ain’t no liar), that’s not a dip – that’s gravity working.

Reality isn’t a Heinlein novel, as much as Elon Musk fawns about how he’s bringing his child-hood book fantasies to life. Waterbeds never, ever are going to be the future.

Show me the analysis of cash flow. Show me the balance sheet strength. Show me debt obligations. That’s some real Alpha behavior. Yet, we don’t get a peep of these from “I’m an Alpha” pants.

Where’s the clear-eyed assessment of competitors winning the EV market, year over year, while Tesla’s fraud increasingly gets exposed? Musk has been obsessed with… his 20 BODYGUARDS hiding him from feedback, shuttling him between bigger and bigger hate speeches and obvious Hitler salutes. EV sales rocket up globally, while Tesla sales are thrashed and trashed in an extension of his overt Nazism. Newsflash: Swasticar sales fell 80% globally because they are terrible cars, which means someone inevitably buys into a Hitler fantasy (looking at you UK). Without Musk’s big Hitler salutes to excite his faithful few, I’d wager Swasticar sales would have gone all the way to zero.

Seeking Alpha talks up “energy storage and robotics” without any substantive analysis. A wolf pack leader would carefully evaluate territory, assess actual capabilities, and make decisions based on what’s best for the entire pack. The history and origins of Alpha wolf behavior from wildlife research say it’s never about flashy displays of dominance/control, but about steady leadership, protection of groups, making wise decisions that ensure trust in long-term survival. Now look at how the author throws in a line about “energy storage and robotics” like he tosses his penny into a fountain to make a wish.

I’m upgrading the stock to a buy for the long term as the company doesn’t only fall under the “automaker” title but is now emerging as a robotics company where the possibilities are endless.

That’s not analysis – that’s precisely the opposite. Seeking Alpha should remember their name is supposed to convey a measurement of how much a portfolio outperforms a benchmark through superior analysis and insight. A true alpha-generating investment analysis would carefully show the actual issues of Tesla’s health, and honestly evaluate the stunning level of risks, and make recommendations based on these fundamentals rather than wishful thinking. There’s nothing “alpha” about blindly recommending a falling stock based on an RSI number and vague promises about robotics as “possibilities are endless”.

Back in rural Kansas we used to have a saying for this: Thin ice don’t get any thicker when ice skates get a Blue Light Special.

The market isn’t wrong to correct hard on the decade of lies from Tesla – that “buy” recommendation is completely out of touch. A stock going down happens because it deserves to be down, if you believe in a market having any real integrity at all.

A death-trap doesn’t stop killing people when the share price falls. Smart money doesn’t buy a dumpster fire just because someone slapped a discount sticker on it. Smart money asks why the dumpster is on fire.

I’ve seen too many “sure things” turn into “never agains” to be fooled by someone masquerading as an Alpha while demonstrating none of the actual qualities like careful assessment, protection of their pack (investors), and wise stewardship of resources. Seeking Alpha “buy” on a sale trigger is how you end up with a garage full of dusty lawn darts and a portfolio full of regrets.

Remember: Tesla is a decade out on a fraud, they promised full self-driving would be solved by 2016 and the first two deaths would be the last, then 2017 deaths, then 2018 deaths, then 2019 deaths… the Tesla death toll kept climbing. Today we look at Autopilot engineering from Tesla as more deadly to Americans than domestic terrorism. FACT.

Bernie Madoff didn’t get rich in a day, and Elon Musk obviously has been irrational longer than anyone should have allowed. So sometimes, just sometimes, the market is being perfectly rational to react to a huge over-hyped over-guarded mistake, and the “buy” recommendations increasingly have to be blind to the giant writing on the Wall… Street.

Let me explain simply how just one of the awful frauds worked.

Nissan had a LEAF EV that was a major player in the market by 2019, a genuine engineering achievement. The 2018-19 LEAF delivered about 150-215 miles of range (depending on the model), entirely adequate for the target market’s actual needs.

Elon Musk fraudulently started marketing the Tesla as 300 mile range. And I don’t mean just lying about the range, I mean intentionally corrupting the dashboard to lie, totally fake numbers such that Tesla owners would be surprised by catastrophic power loss and sudden car failure. And he setup a call-center support scam to bury the evidence. He corrupted Nissan’s market share with targeted abject lies, and a market should harshly correct him for it.

Seeking Alpha says this:

I think competition creates innovation, which can’t be a bad thing in the long term for the entire market.

Bad thing in the long term? That line reads to me like a carnival barker cheerleading victims into an unsafe oversold tent to sell spectator tickets outside to a tragic death show when those inside can’t escape a fire. He’s exhibiting “live wrong” thinking. Lance Armstrong was a bad thing in the long run, precisely because he treated competition as the one and only measure of innovation. Without regulations we should expect a market to collapse like a burning circus tent under the weight of unregulated criminals, loss of all gains, which is the opposite of good.

Seeking Alpha goes on to say this:

So really, for every hater, there’s a fan, and eventually, I think the Elon hate would blow over. Even if it doesn’t, I’m not projecting for the effect that could have on sales to be grave, and Dan Ives shares the sentiment…

For every Hitler hater, there’s a fan! How bad could Germany’s future be just because they marched into Russia without winter gear? The faithful still believed! This is the same magical thinking that leads investors to ignore fatal flaws while chasing false promises.

The fact that Tesla’s stock ever had any power at all has been like watching the fraudulent dashboard numbers on the Tesla itself – both intentionally engineered to show inflated figures that don’t match any reality when measured against objective standards. Anyone with basic engineering skills could expose technology fraud in 2016; anyone with math skills in 2018 could spot market fraud.

Men on Mars by 2018!? Colonies on Mars by 2022!? Tell me how to BUY! I’ll take two colonies for $10 billion please. Oh, and now Elon Musk says I probably will die on the way and that’s just a minor setback? Well, then make it ten colonies for my dozens of children born out of wedlock! I’m upgrading to “the possibilities are endless” because… fantasy!

How many people are qualified to hook up a multimeter to a Tesla, let alone the stock market, or any of the other fraud brands that this conman has been able to fund with other peoples’ investments? The numbers never lied. And yet “Alpha” investors keep falling for the fraud.

Tesla surely will be known someday, hopefully sooner rather than later, as the biggest integrity breach in history among the constellation of other massive integrity breaches (SpaceX, Boring, Hyperloop, SolarCity, Twitter).

These insights are from someone who’s taken a Tesla apart, hacked the guts out of it to prove it fraud over ten years ago, and somehow has not lost his shirt by revealing truths. I’ve called Tesla a man-slaughtering Titanic of math and I stand by my hands-on technical assessment of the many catastrophic engineering flaws. I care about my pack and I take care of them. You?