The Melania release is a coordinated takedown of the entire film industry
Amazon MGM Studios paid $40 million to acquire a documentary and spent another $35 million marketing it — making it the most expensive documentary in history. Some argue it was a bribe. Some argue it was marketing. Neither achieve the full scope of the attack on American filmmaking.
It was pushed to 1,778 screens and announced a $7 million opening weekend, which was reported as “best documentary opening in a decade” and causing “shocks at the box office.”
The numbers are fake.
The theaters were empty.
The real function of the $75 million wasn’t to make a film. It was to destroy the infrastructure that produces documentary films.
The Fraud Arithmetic
The simple math on 600,000 admissions across 1,778 theaters over three days gives us about 28 people per showing. That means a film that cost $75 million had a per-theater average of $3,937 for the weekend. Each theater would have generated about $1,300 per day across multiple showings.
Compare that investment-to-return ratio to every actual documentary:
| Film |
Investment |
Opening |
Ratio |
Result |
| Fahrenheit 9/11 (2004) |
$21M |
$23.9M |
0.9:1 |
Recouped day one. $222M worldwide. |
| RBG (2018) |
~$3M |
Limited |
— |
$14M total. Organic word-of-mouth. |
| Am I Racist? (2024) |
~$5-10M |
$4.5M |
~1.5:1 |
Profitable. $12M total. |
| Fahrenheit 11/9 (2018) |
~$15M |
$3.1M |
4.8:1 |
Flop. |
| Melania (2026) |
$75M |
$7M |
10.7:1 |
WORST RATIO in documentary history. |
Melania’s cost-to-opening ratio is a tragedy at 10.7 to 1. It needs to outgross every non-concert documentary in history including Fahrenheit 9/11 just to break even.
With twice the theaters and twelve times the $6 million production budget of Fahrenheit 9/11, it generated one-third the revenue and one-seventh the per-theater performance.
That’s a historic disaster. A catastrophic flop.
We also can compare what happened per screen in a market attacked by astroturfing versus the other markets:
| Market |
Screens |
Per-Screen |
Bulk Buying? |
| United States |
1,778 |
$3,937 |
Yes — GOP clubs, faith coalitions, Craigslist ads |
| Australia |
33 |
$982 |
No |
| UK and Ireland |
155 |
$275 |
No |
The US number is four times Australia and fourteen times the UK. That differential maps into documented bulk-purchase operations that exist in the US and nowhere else. Strip the astroturfing and this film performed at under $1,000 per screen, which is approximately nothing.
As Rotten Tomatoes noted:
The only documentaries to ever gross as much as Melania needs to make to turn a profit for Amazon are Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour ($178.9 million) and Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 ($119.1 million).
The industry analyst David A. Gross put it like this:
This is a political investment, not a for-profit movie venture. If it helps Amazon with a regulatory, taxation, tariff or other government issue, then it will pay back. $75 million is insignificant to Amazon.
But that’s not what this is really about. It’s active suppression of political speech.
The Empty Theaters
Wired analyzed 1,398 showings across 329 American theaters on Fandango. Of those, exactly two were sold out before the premiere, a rate of 0.14%. Meanwhile, journalists and social media users documented what they found when they actually checked:
| Location |
Documented Attendance |
| Los Angeles (4 theaters) |
5 total tickets sold on Friday night |
| Orange County AMC |
Zero tickets on Saturday |
| Boston AMC Common 19 |
1 ticket across 3 showtimes; 7 total across four Friday showings |
| Jacksonville, FL |
Zero tickets for opening night |
| Minneapolis |
Theater cancelled all screenings |
| Manhattan |
20% discounts due to low attendance |
| UK (100+ cinemas) |
Most showings sold no tickets at all |
| Mexico City |
15 of 27 showings had zero tickets sold; average 2.9 per showing |
If theaters across Los Angeles, Boston, Jacksonville, Manhattan, the UK, and Mexico City are documented as empty, where are the 600,000 people?
The answer is simple. It’s all political astroturf. The GOP ran a ticket stuffing campaign to stuff the sales numbers. They want the film to appear successful, and don’t care if anyone watches it. They care that nobody can watch anything else.
The International Control Group
Outside the United States, there are no GOP clubs buying out screenings, no Craigslist ads paying people to sit in seats, no National Faith Advisory Board promoting bulk purchases. What you see in international markets is organic demand for this film.
It is essentially zero.
Australia: 33 cinemas. $32,399 total. That’s $982 per screen for the entire weekend — roughly 82 tickets per cinema across three days. The film debuted at #31, one spot below Wicked: For Good, which had been in theaters for two months.
UK and Ireland: 155 cinemas. £32,974 total. That’s £213 per screen — approximately 15-20 tickets per cinema for the entire weekend.
The US per-theater average was $3,937 putting it four times higher than Australia. That differential maps precisely onto the documented bulk-purchase operations that exist in the US and nowhere else.
On IMDb, the film holds a 1.3 out of 10 from over 32,000 votes. It was previously rated 1.0, which sets it at the lowest-rated film in the database’s history. On Metacritic: 6 out of 100. Rotten Tomatoes critics score: 6%.
The Numbers Were Manufactured
The evidence of coordinated astroturfing comes from multiple independent sources.
Rob Shuter, entertainment columnist (Naughty But Nice Substack), reported on January 28 from multiple GOP insiders:
This isn’t organic demand. It’s about optics. Empty theaters look terrible.
They’re struggling to give the tickets away. Some screenings barely sell unless the party steps in.
If the GOP didn’t buy the seats, no one would.
Roger Friedman at Showbiz411 named specific organizations and documented the operations:
- Miami: The Federated Republican Women of Miami and The Old Cutler Republican Women’s Club bought out the 6:30pm Coconut Grove showing on January 30, reselling at $35 through their website. Attendees were required to provide employer information and occupation.
- Bakersfield, CA: The local Republican Party bought out the 7:30pm showing January 31, offering free tickets to members and $10 to non-members. Of the entire screening, only 14 seats were claimed.
The New Republic confirmed:
The situation has become so dire that conservative groups have gotten involved, buying out entire blocks of seats or even whole screenings in a flagrant effort to save face for the president.
The Hollywood Reporter noted the obvious with characteristic understatement:
Granted, it’s possible that Melania — or another wealthy benefactor — is buying out blocks of tickets in advance but … come on. Since when has anybody named Trump ever tried to rig the numbers?
Tom Brueggemann, former IndieWire editor and veteran box office analyst, published the professional forensics on his Substack. He identified an uptick in ticket purchases on Wednesday two days before release consistent with coordinated bulk buying rather than organic consumer behavior. His industry sources confirmed:
…blocks of tickets were purchased for the weekend, then distributed to senior citizen homes, Republican activists, other interested parties for free to help boost audiences.
Meidas News documented that the National Faith Advisory Board — a faith coalition led by Trump advisor Paula White-Cain sent emails promoting bulk ticket purchases and private screenings. This is a White House-adjacent organization actively coordinating ticket buying.
Paid Attendance: A Craigslist ad in Boston offered $50 and free tickets to attend the film, with the requirement to “remain in seats for entirety of film.” The ad was removed after going viral, with a follow-up note saying counsel had advised that “proceeding would run afoul of campaign finance laws.” In Deadline’s comment section, at least one person wrote:
I was paid $50 to sit in a seat during Melania and was on my phone with headphones.
The Walk-Up Cover Story: The official explanation for the gap between near-zero pre-sales and the $7 million opening is that 72% of tickets were bought as walk-ups, and disproportionately women over 55. This is the demographic most likely to pre-purchase tickets, not least likely. The walk-up claim conveniently fills the exact gap that cannot be independently verified the way online pre-sales can.
The Exit Poll Tell: Opening day audience self-identified as 49% Republican, 2% Democrat. 47% conservative. 28% Evangelical Christian. 74% Caucasian. This is the demographic profile of GOP club members and organized political operatives, not random moviegoers.
The $75 Million Bribe
Melania Trump personally received approximately $28 million from the deal mainly for corruption. Amazon paid $26 million more than the next-highest bidder (Disney, at $14 million). The marketing budget of $35 million was roughly ten times the size of any comparable documentary campaign. RBG’s marketing budget was $3 million. Fahrenheit 9/11’s was an estimated $15 million.
This happened while Amazon seeks regulatory favor from the Trump administration on tariffs, antitrust enforcement, and AWS government contracts. Jeff Bezos’ Amazon donated $1 million to the inauguration. The documentary itself features Melania praising the “elegance and sophistication of our donors” as the camera drifts past Bezos.
Ted Hope, the former co-head of movies at Amazon Studios, told the New York Times:
How can it not be equated with currying favor or an outright bribe? How can that not be the case?
Former Office of Government Ethics Director Don Fox said this of the documentary:
seemed like it was meant to curry favor.
Documentary filmmaker Kyle Henry stated that Melania was
not a documentary… a campaign advertising and a bribe.
Julie Cohen, who co-directed RBG, criticized the film as having “no artistic or journalistic integrity” and questioned the price Amazon paid.
Brett Ratner, the director, hadn’t made a film since 2017 when multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct and harassment.
He has since surfaced in the Epstein files.
Two-thirds of the crew who worked on Melania requested that their names not appear in the credits. Ratner told Variety:
I understand … working on the movie and they don’t want to be credited, but they want to feed their family. I don’t blame anybody for that.
The Denial-of-Service Attack
The $75 million didn’t just buy a bribe. The actual structure needs to be made more visible. It bought the elimination of an industry.
Budget denial. At the Sundance Film Festival last month, documentary filmmakers and producers discovered that Amazon wasn’t in the market to acquire or commission any documentaries.
Not one. According to IndieWire:
the company’s 2026 budget for nonfiction fare has been used in its entirety to produce and release Melania.
The largest buyer in the documentary market — the company that previously funded Time (mass incarceration), All In: The Fight for Democracy (Stacey Abrams), I Am Not Your Negro (James Baldwin), and Mayor Pete — spent everything on a single propaganda film and left nothing for the rest of the industry.
Screen occupation. All those 1,778 theaters were empty rooms. The screens are contractually unavailable for other programming during the release window. Australia proved organic demand is under $1,000 per screen. But the screens are occupied. This is bandwidth saturation, an infrastructure is full of nothing, so legitimate traffic can’t get through.
Workforce capture. The crew members who needed to eat took the job making propaganda they were ashamed of, then asked to have their names removed from the credits. Two-thirds of them. The people with the skills to make critical documentaries were employed making an infomercial. That’s labor denial as those workers can’t simultaneously be making something else.
Ecosystem collapse. The institutional destruction was timed to coincide:
- A24 shut its documentary department in May 2025.
- The Corporation for Public Broadcasting was defunded by the Trump administration and Congress, taking PBS — “a cornerstone of the doc marketplace” — with it.
- Participant Media — the company that produced An Inconvenient Truth, RBG, Food, Inc., and dozens of other socially conscious documentaries — was closed by its founder Jeff Skoll. Skoll then hosted a Trump inauguration victory rally.
- Disney, Paramount, and Amazon all bid for Melania — three of the five major studios simultaneously signaling that what gets funded is fealty, not journalism.
Success narrative manufacture. GOP bulk purchases, paid attendees, and faith coalition email campaigns produce a $7 million number. Press runs it as a triumph. USA Today: “shocks at the box office.” CNBC: “a surprising $7 million.”
This creates the evidentiary basis for the argument that audiences want propaganda over journalism, which begs more of the same and less of everything else. The fake demand manufactures the rationale for killing real supply.
This is exactly how a distributed denial-of-service attack works. You flood the zone with shit until legitimate traffic can’t get through. The $75 million is shit traffic. The 1,778 screens showing to empty rooms are saturated bandwidth. And like a real DDoS, the attack looks like normal activity from the outside. Tickets were purchased. Screens were booked. A number was reported. The mechanism is invisible unless you examine the traffic and realize it’s synthetic attacks.
The Broader Media Acquisition
The Melania documentary is one transaction in a systematic buyout of the American information ecosystem.
The same week the film opened, Deadline reported that the Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, a spinoff of Project 2025, had distributed a 47-page report called “Fedflix: Netflix, The Federal Government, and the New Propaganda State” to the White House counsel and the Senate Judiciary antitrust subcommittee.
The report labels Netflix a company of “highly partisan Democratic operatives and donors” producing “FBI collaboration shows, hyper-sexualized LGBTQ+ children’s programs, and Russia hoax documentaries.” Its purpose is explicit: to provide the regulatory ammunition to block Netflix’s $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery so that Larry Ellison’s Paramount can take it instead.
The Oversight Project chief, Mike Howell, told Deadline:
I don’t want Netflix to get bigger at all. I want it to have less influence.
A GOP insider explained the mechanism:
Unlike the first term, conservative think tanks are quick to provide the administration with the ammunition they need to execute policy. That, Fox, and social media amplifies it and then the administration reacts. It’s a reflexive loop.
At the Melania premiere — standing in the theater Amazon paid for, at the screening of the $75 million bribery documentary — Trump told Deadline that Netflix acquiring Warner Bros “could be a problem” because of “monopoly.”
Paramount’s Chief Legal Officer is Makan Delrahim, who ran the DOJ Antitrust Division during Trump’s first term. The same antitrust apparatus that would review the Netflix deal is staffed by people now working for the rival bidder.
IndieWire noted that HBO and Netflix are the last two major platforms still funding social issue documentaries. HBO recently released The Alabama Solution (a prison system exposé) and has an Alex Gibney documentary about Elon Musk in the pipeline. If Ellison’s Paramount acquires Warner Bros instead of Netflix, HBO goes into the same portfolio as everything else — controlled by a family Trump calls “close friends.”
Map the full topology:
| Platform |
Status |
| Amazon |
Captured. $75 million tribute paid. Documentary budget eliminated. NPR financially dependent. |
| Twitter/X |
Captured. Musk ownership. Direct amplification platform for MAGA. |
| TikTok |
Captured. Ellison purchase. |
| Paramount |
Captured. Ellison ownership. Former Trump DOJ antitrust chief as legal officer. |
| Apple |
CEO Tim Cook attended the White House Melania premiere. Signal sent. |
| A24 |
Documentary department shut down. |
| PBS/CPB |
Defunded. |
| Participant Media |
Closed. Founder switched sides. |
| Disney |
Bid on Melania. Signal received. |
| Netflix and HBO/Warner Bros |
Remaining targets. Heritage Foundation actively working to block their merger so Ellison can acquire WB instead. |
Every platform that distributes narrative to the public is being either purchased, made financially dependent, or targeted for regulatory destruction. The outlets that still have editorial independence are subscription-funded or niche. The mass-reach platforms are being consolidated under oligarchic control operating in explicit coordination with state power.
The Press Release as News
NPR ran what amounted to an Amazon studio press release about the Melania opening. At the bottom of the article, after the audience had already absorbed the “exceeded expectations” narrative:
Editor’s note: Amazon is among NPR’s recent financial supporters and pays to distribute some NPR content.
The disclosure was technically present. After the content. Where it functions as legal cover rather than editorial framing. The same pattern as a consent banner with 227 tracking partners: the mechanism of disclosure exists to provide the appearance of integrity while the actual information flow serves the opposite purpose.
USA Today ran it as “shocks at the box office” without mentioning GOP bulk purchases, paid attendees, international numbers, Ted Hope’s bribery characterization, the OGE director’s concerns, crew members removing their names, or Amazon’s budget elimination. The headline is the product. The documented evidence is the externality.
What the $7 Million Actually Measures
Box office exists to measure consumer demand. If the mechanism producing that number is political organizations bulk-buying empty seats, faith coalitions coordinating ticket campaigns, paid attendees on Craigslist, and GOP clubs struggling to give tickets away — then $7 million doesn’t measure demand. It measures how much political infrastructure was activated to manufacture the appearance of demand.
Comscore tracks transactions, not intent. It cannot distinguish a genuine moviegoer from a GOP club buying out a screening nobody attends, from an RNC-adjacent organization laundering political spending through ticket purchases. Empty theaters with purchased tickets don’t equal a successful film. It’s money laundering with extra steps.
The real number is the one from Australia. $982 per screen. That’s organic demand for this film: approximately nothing.
The Architecture of Absence
The $75 million didn’t buy an audience. It didn’t buy a good film — the director, the former Amazon film chief, the OGE director, and two-thirds of the crew all know that. It didn’t buy a commercial success — it will lose over $60 million by any honest accounting.
It bought three things:
- A $28 million payment to the First Lady of the United States to influence her husband in regulatory decisions affecting Amazon’s core business.
- The elimination of Amazon’s entire 2026 documentary budget, removing all documentaries by the largest buyer from the market at Sundance and beyond.
- A manufactured success narrative that justifies the replacement of critical documentary filmmaking with mindless propaganda, creating the market conditions for more of the same.
The theaters aren’t empty by accident. The North Korean effect of empty roads, empty stands, empty lines, empty everything is the point.
Every screen occupied by Melania is a screen that can’t show the truth. Think of The Alabama Solution or an Alex Gibney investigation or anything else that confronts power. Every dollar Amazon spent on this film is a dollar that didn’t fund the next I Am Not Your Negro. Every crew member who took the job to feed their family and then stripped their name from the credits is a skilled professional who wasn’t making something that mattered.
The most dangerous power grabs in history sneak up as falsely legitimate. They fake receipts. They come with reports that say “exceeded expectations.” They come with press coverage and narrative that buries the conflict-of-interest. And they come with the systematic destruction of every institution that might produce the truth.