Bush plans test of emergency conscription

A little note from The Guardian explains:

The Bush administration is planning a test run of America’s emergency military call-up, stoking speculation about a return to a draft at a time when the White House is considering sending more troops to Iraq.

[…]

…Jim Nicholson, the secretary for veteran affairs, said he believed “society would benefit” if the US were to bring back the draft.

In an indication of the sensitivities surrounding the draft, the White House moved to counter the remarks. He withdrew his statement hours later.

What emergency conscription system, you might ask?

America suspended the draft in 1973 during the last months of the Vietnam war. But it has required all males to register for the draft since 1980, keeping its vast system of draft boards on standby.

Your navigation system is the co-pilot, not the pilot

Just in case you might be confused, when you install a GPS or your car comes with navigation computer you are not relieved of your duties behind the wheel. Consider what happened to the people highlighted in a recent story by Reuters:

In October a 53-year-old German, obeying his satnav’s command “Turn right now!” jerked the wheel over and crashed into a roadside toilet hut 30 metres (yards) before the crossing he was meant to take, causing 2,000 euros ($2,600) damage.

You just can’t blame the navigation system for that one. But I guess I should still take back some of what I said about the California windshield-mount prohibition (Vehicle Code 26708) — navigation systems, regardless of their position, may in fact increase risks.

Clearly there are some among us who trust computerized navigation more than they should, and probably a lot more than a real person. How do you rate your passenger’s map knowledge and capabilities compared to a colorful little box with a logo on it programmed by someone you will never see or meet? I mean if this German guy’s wife was sitting next to him and saying “turn right now” what do you think he would have done?

Frankly I’ve had some experiences that suggest the navigation systems are often just guessing at the right path when they are afraid to admit they have no idea where to go. Just the other night I watched a Garmin Nuvi 360 put itself into an infinite loop…”turn left onto Frontage, now turn left and proceed to University, turn left onto Frontage”. We had to turn the poor thing off before it overheated or its feelings were hurt by the passengers laughing and yelling obscenities. I shudder to think what would have happened if it actually did control the wheel. I guess that’s why aircraft still have human pilots on board, sitting next to the big manual override switch.

And then there are those folks who do try and blame the navigation system for their own lapses in judgment. Again from the Reuters story:

A few weeks earlier, an 80-year-old motorist also followed his satnav instead of common sense and ignored a “closed for construction” sign on a Hamburg motorway. He hit a pile of sand at high speed but was not hurt.

“I just thought the navigation system knew a shortcut,” Volker Heinemann was quoted as telling a local newspaper. His car had to be towed away.

Maybe Volker’s navigation system was just tired of his driving and wanted a divorce. Reuters tries to make the case that people become “dumber” as they trust things more:

Experts say that as cars get smarter, some people seem to get dumber, and the problem increases as more vehicles are equipped with the devices.

[…]

“If a traffic light is red it’s obvious you have to stop even if the satnav says ‘drive straight on’,” he said. “People who drive into rivers and then blame their satnav are just too humiliated to accept blame themselves.”

One German did drive his car into the Havel River near Berlin on a foggy Christmas Day. He said his satnav had made a ferry crossing look like a bridge.

I don’t agree that stupidity is an automatic result of trust, but I think I can see where they are going (pun not intended) with this satnav analysis. It reminds me of the experiments about removing all the signs from roads to increase driver awareness. The argument is that signs may actually impede people thinking for themselves and give them a false sense of security as they believe they can detach themselves from actual environmental concerns. I guess another way of looking at it is the last generation of signs (past knowledge) may be found insufficient when trying to handle the current set of known risks.

I say this all just goes to show how humans are eager to believe that “easier”, “clear” or “more convenient” often means “perfectly safe” instead of “slightly improved, with additional sources of information, proceed with caution”.

It’s a premature mission accomplished mentality that often gets people in the most trouble.

Exxon fines significantly reduced for Valdez Spill

A US federal court has ruled that Exxon need not pay the penalty for spilling over 11 million gallons of oil along more than 1,200 miles of Alaskan coastline in 1989. The BBC reports:

In the original court ruling, Exxon was ordered to pay out $5bn.

Later decisions ordered the lower Alaskan court to set a lower limit for the penalty, but refused to say how much the penalty should be cut by.

However, in the latest 2-1 judgement, Chief Judge Mary Schroeder and Judge Andrew Kleinfeld declared it was “time for this protracted litigation to end.”

I guess Exxon lawyers ground down the plaintiffs. Or maybe there is some political maneuvering underfoot? Seems incredible that the fee dropped a whopping 50%.

I mean after the first ruling way back in the 1990s it sounded like the oil giant was going to have to pay a lot, but a number like $5 billion has to be taken in perspective.

First of all, Exxon reported earning more than $10 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005, which was $2 billion more than the same quarter in 2004. Roughly speaking, that means a $5 billion penalty represents six months of profit for the company. That’s right, Exxon reported just under $40 billion in profits for 2005. This year has been a good one for them as well with their latest earnings call showing net income is still above $10 billion per quarter.

Second of all, if you put this in more down-to-earth terms it still does not seem like a lot for Exxon to pay relative to the damage/harm. Let’s say, for example, that instead of $40 billion in profit a year we talk about an average wage earner who brings home $40 thousand per year. What would the penalty be for that person if they were operating machinery while intoxicated and accidentally exterminated vast amounts of wildlife? I’m not sure how to deflate these numbers relative to the earnings, so here are the actual estimated dead from the Valdez spill:

250,000 seabirds, 2,800 sea otters, 300 harbour seals, 250 bald eagles, up to 22 killer whales, and an unknown number of salmon and herring.

Is a one-time $5 thousand dollar penalty excessive for a person who nets $40 thousand a year? What did it really cost in the short and long term to clean and repair the damage, as well as compensate those impacted by the accident? Like most externalities (things done by Exxon that hurts someone else), it’s hard to get exact numbers. The original ruling was $287 million in actual damages (that would be the equivalent of a $287 fine for the $40 thousand/yr wage-earner), but this did not account for long-term consequences such as those discussed in the news:

“I would just love to collect the Exxon oil that is on our beaches,” [Cordova, Alaska fisherman] Mike says, “and dump those gallons of oil on the front yard of its corporate headquarters. It’s been in my front yard for fourteen years.”

One of the grimmest aspects of the spill’s effect on Cordova has been the state of commercial fishing permits, once highly coveted. On the Sound, a permit is like a home — it is fisher’s greatest investment, something that stays in the family, an asset that accrues value. In 1988, there were fishers in Cordova whose permits were worth nearly a million dollars. Today, their permits — fishers often call them their “nest eggs” — have depreciated in value by a staggering 90%.

Three years after the spill the local marine population was so devastated (e.g. clams, herring, and seals) that it wiped out 85% of profits for the Native Regional Chugach Alaska Corporation and forced them into bankruptcy.

Third of all, maybe I’m looking at this from the wrong perspective. Perhaps we should not try to figure out whether the penalty is excessive relative to the profit or financial power of Exxon. Nevermind that $5 billion represented the annual profit of Exxon in 1994, the year punitive damages were originally set by an Anchorage jury. That makes perfect sense, but just for a moment let’s assume we just want to look at precedent relative to other rulings that deal with externalities and public harm. The tobacco industry, for example, settled for up to $360 billion. Wow. $5 billion now seems even smaller. There’s just one little problem with this line of argument — the federal government recently also unexpectedly significantly reduced its charges against the tobacco companies.

“We were very surprised,” said Dan Webb, lawyer for Altria Group’s Philip Morris USA and the coordinating attorney in the case. “They’ve gone down from $130 billion to $10 billion with absolutely no explanation. It’s clear the government hasn’t thought through what it’s doing.”

The Justice Department offered little explanation for the figure. Associate Attorney General Robert D. McCallum Jr. and members of the trial team declined to answer questions as the court session ended. In 2001, then-Attorney General John D. Ashcroft tried to settle or shelve the government’s racketeering case against the industry before a public outcry forced its revival.

“It feels like a political decision to take into consideration the tobacco companies’ financial interest rather than health interests of 45 million addicted smokers,” said William V. Corr, director of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. “The government proved its case, but the levels of funding are a shadow of the cessation treatment program that the government’s own expert witness recommended.”

Sources and government officials close to the case said the trial lawyers wanted to request $130 billion for smoking-cessation programs but were pressured by leaders in the attorney general’s office, particularly McCallum, to make the cut. Arguments within the Justice Department continued behind the scenes through yesterday morning, according to the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the controversy over the matter.

Is there a connection? What was Robert McCallum’s position on Exxon? Wonder if he’s related to Exxon Valdez spill profiteer Eric McCallum who has “declined to identify” his business partner. Probably not, but given Robert’s reputation for conflict of interest you never know.

Well, aside from the Bush administration habit of placing the profits of their friends above the health and welfare of Americans, the states did manage to work out a $280 billion settlement with tobacco companies in 1998 (pre-Bush) that apparently led directly to successful health education programs. That again puts the Valdez $5 billion penalty in perspective.

Oh, and fourthly here’s another point that might be worth factoring: apparently last year the CEO of Exxon was given a $400 million retirement award, angering shareholders.

“Lee Raymond’s retirement package is a rubber-stamp on excessive spending by our company,” Reuters quoted one shareholder as saying.

Mr Raymond’s pay-off includes a retirement bonus of $98.4m, on top of last year’s $49m salary and a number of perks including use of a company jet.

Wonder if shareholders would have been as angry if the settlement had been, well, settled with that money instead. Seems like $5 billion divided by 17 years (since 1989) would be roughly $300 million per year. If you really want to be cynical, I guess you could compare the “pay-off” for the CEO to the amount earned the company just by fighting the Valdez settlement:

“Each year Exxon delays payment of its obligation,” the National Association of Attorneys General wrote in a 1999 letter to Exxon CEO Lee Raymond, “it earns an estimated $400 million from the difference between the statutory interest rate on judgments of 6 percent and the company’s internal rate of return of about 14 percent.”

So the $400 million golden parachute is really just from one year of refusing to settle the case. Multiply that by 17 ($6.8 billion) and you again can see why $5 billion is a small number….

Incidentally, I found another comparison point with the tobacco industry:

During his tenure at Exxon, Mr Raymond proved an unpopular figure among environmentalists, because he dismissed climate change as bunkum and helped fund groups that questioned the validity of global warming research.

Many of the protesters were realistic in their demands, saying that they did not want Exxon “to transform themselves into Greenpeace” but did expect the company to spend more on finding alternatives to fossil fuels.

The settlement with the tobacco industry has centered around educating people about the harms of smoking. Will Exxon ever be forced to teach people about the externalities of oil exploration, transportation and consumption? Ha! If they can keep reducing the fine for the direct result of an environmental catastrophe, then what are the chances they will be accountable for anything more complicated and subtle? Between their strong ties to the current President and Vice President, and their success from outspending their critics, something tells me that they will be quite content to continue ignoring risks to human health, dismiss any practical alternative energy, and continue exploiting natural resources without fear of accountability.
Commodity Pool

Perhaps the most memorable brief from this first round was the one in which Exxon claimed that crude oil was not a pollutant under the federal Clean Water Act, which it had violated.

“The crude oil on board the Exxon Valdez was not a waste,” Exxon Shipping attorney Edward Bruce said. “It was a commodity.”

Clever. No need to regulate something if you just change the word you call it? Bullets and guns become commodities? “Those things can’t hurt me, they’re commodities!” Drugs are commodities? What about the ingredients for methamphetamine? Commodities not regulated substances, right? Is there anything that Exxon would not classify as a commodity, once they admit that such a term includes anything that can be marketed relative to supply and demand?

Indeed, we should all realize it was just an opportunity washing up on shore, not toxic sludge. Too bad those dead animals and local industries did not know how to properly harness the commodity that destroyed their lives. I’m not kidding. Note this comment from actual case proceedings:

Judge Holland rejected all such arguments, concluding that “it is specious for Exxon to argue that it conferred a benefit on commercial fishermen by spilling oil.”

Someone should notify Wikipedia. Their description of the incident is far too pessimistic and doesn’t use the word commodity once:

The Exxon Valdez oil spill was one of the most devastating manmade environmental disasters ever to occur at sea, seriously affecting plants and wildlife. Its remote location (accessible only by helicopter and boat) made government and industry response efforts difficult, and severely taxed existing plans for response.

Finally, and fifth of all, some say this was a predictable disaster. Aside from the technicalities of the legal system and the murky waters of punitive damage theory, it is perhaps most interesting to note just how much sloppy work and risk Exxon and BP were willing (continue?) to allow in their Alaska operations.