Researchers investigating the risk of dangerous diseases returning, find the decline in vaccination will lead to thousands dead.

For current rates, we took a conservative approach by using average vaccination levels between 2004 and 2023. With measles, we found that we’re already on the precipice of disaster. If vaccination rates remain the same, the model predicts that measles may become endemic within about 20 years. That means an estimated 851,300 cases over 25 years, leading to 170,200 hospitalizations and 2,550 deaths.