The evidence seems quite convincing already, that an Azerbaijani passenger jet planning to land in Grozny was instead downed by Russian surface to air attacks.

Russian air defences mistook the Embraer for a Ukrainian drone, and engaged it with unidentified systems. Surviving passengers said that on the third attempt to land in Grozny, there were some explosions outside the aircraft and that the flight was then diverted across the Caspian to Aktau in Kazakhstan. Passenger video from inside the aircraft showed signs of shrapnel damage, and a woman passenger suffered a leg wound. As the aircraft crossed the Caspian, the crew began to encounter control problems – which may have been the result of hydraulic failure.

Videos of flight J2-8243 show a struggle to maintain altitude and trim, the pilots making it all the way across the sea yet losing control just a mile or so short of the Aktau runway.

After crashing, up-close videos show obvious anti-aircraft shrapnel damage to the wings and fuselage.

All passengers likely would have survived if the damaged jet had been immediately cleared to land in Grozny, instead of tragically diverted so far away.

In related news, North Korean soldiers enlisted to fight for Russia have been shooting in the wrong direction and killing Russians.

While engaged in combat in Kursk Oblast, a group of North Korean soldiers opened fire on members of the Chechen Akhmat unit fighting for Russia, HUR reported via its official Telegram channel. The attack allegedly killed eight Russian soldiers.