The critical safety trend is clear from 232 documented Tesla fires causing 83 fatalities, with patterns suggesting systemic issues growing worse over time rather than improving. Already we saw a 2025 model Tesla abruptly kill its owner.
The latest reports of brand new vehicles experiencing critical computer failures within just tens of miles of delivery — affecting core safety features like cameras and active safety systems — indicates Tesla is now shipping cars with fundamental flaws that create immediate safety risks.
The progression being charted is troubling, due to the unusually high death rate from design and manufacturing defects:
- Early incidents (2013-2016) often involved battery punctures or severe crashes
- Mid-period (2017-2020) saw increasing cases of spontaneous combustion in parked vehicles
- Recent period (2021-2024) shows acceleration of incidents plus new failure modes like:
- Computer systems failing immediately after delivery
- Multiple instances of fires spreading to buildings
- Cases requiring massive water resources to extinguish
- Batteries reigniting days later
- Higher fatality rates per incident
Despite Tesla’s plummeting sales, such as nearly 20% decline in California due to growing safety concerns, some consumers continue to purchase these vehicles, echoing the puzzling consumer behavior seen with dangerous products like lawn darts in the past.
The company’s mounting inventory of unsold cars and ongoing failures in basic quality, particularly regarding fire risks, make the continued demand difficult to comprehend. The unfortunate market failure is highlighted by sad stories like the following one, which documents growing fears by Tesla fans how they may be the next to die in a fire.
Tesla drivers are reporting computer failures after driving off with their brand-new cars over just the first few tens to hundreds of miles. Wide-ranging features powered by the computer, like active safety features, cameras, and even GPS, navigation, and range estimations, fail to work. …the broken rear-view camera goes against federal safety regulations, which should force a recall. At the moment, the main remedy being discussed is a computer replacement…. Tesla service is currently being overwhelmed by the issue, and Tesla is pushing service appointments to next year.
Tens of miles.
Presumably a Tesla official response will soon be released that people who want their cars to work shouldn’t sign papers that say Elon Musk is their lord and savior who can never be exposed or challenged.
Elon Musk Doesn’t Want Tesla to Have to Do Car-Crash Reporting…
A few years ago we noted Tesla engineering was so poor it was unlikely to last past 10,000 miles, as proven by reports from junkyards.
Now the brand is down to just tens of miles before the new owners flood service centers complaining of a critical safety failure.
Widespread computer failures in new Tesla deliveries suggests quality control has deteriorated to dangerous levels. Rather than addressing known fire risks, Tesla appears to be in a coverup, shipping vehicles with compounding safety problems, from battery fires to critical system failures rendering safety features inoperable within the first few miles of operation.
It’s not hard to imagine why a management culture that silences critics leads directly to products full of dangerous flaws, and keeps worsening over time as fewer and fewer critics are allowed to remain.
Its vehicles accounted for 21% of all U.S. recalls in the first three quarters of the year, according to recall management firm BizzyCar. […] Tesla recalled 1,858,774 vehicles in the September quarter, the highest in the U.S..
When car quality declines to the point where brand new vehicles can’t complete their delivery drives without disabling critical safety systems, it indicates severe manufacturing and engineering problems are being ignored rather than fixed. The fire incident data shows this pattern of allowing known safety issues to expand rather than investing in solutions.
Truly, and so painfully obviously, Tesla is the worst in manufacturing history. Imagine if after the Hindenburg burned up the response was “let’s make a million more of these disasters and prevent anyone from reporting!” That’s Tesla.
First, let me congratulate you on an amazing commencement speech yesterday. It was great to meet you and let me say again, as a parent who was lucky to attend the ceremony, many thanks for what you do and the inspiration to me and my family.
Second, your analysis provides crucial data that perfectly illustrates the ‘survivorship bias’ trap in Tesla safety analysis. You’re the historian but it reminds me of the story I just read about Abraham Wald’s groundbreaking work during WWII. Military officers wanted to add armor to bomber planes where returning aircraft showed the most bullet holes. Wald realized they were looking at the wrong data because these were the survivors. The critical areas needing armor were actually where the returning planes showed no damage, because planes hit in those areas never made it back.
Today’s discourse shows an identical statistical fallacy in Tesla. A flood of social media robot and sock puppet “my Tesla works fine” comments represent few and fake survivors, while systematic data of the real tragedies presented here (232 documented fires, 83 fatalities, and now critical computer failures within mere miles of delivery) reveals true vulnerability zones.
The acceleration of failure modes from 2013-2024 you reveal, particularly that progression from crash-related incidents to spontaneous combustion and widespread computer failures, provides statistical evidence of systemic deterioration that survivor stories do not and can not refute.
To me you are channeling that brilliant insight by Wald, which saved countless lives by focusing on the complete data set rather than booster and survivor stories. Your analysis and documentation of Tesla’s compounding safety failures serves a vital public safety function. Thank you again.
The declining quality control evidenced by immediate safety system failures in new deliveries, combined with the upward trend in fire incidents and fatalities, presents a statistical pattern of Tesla manufacturing failures harming public safety that no regulator should ignore.
Look forward to seeing you in DC or Brussels soon.
@Stephan
Thank you for the kind words about the commencement speech. Congratulations really goes to you. It was wonderful meeting yesterday. Thank you for not only the discussion then but taking the time to read and engage so thoughtfully with this analysis.
Your insights here about an engineered “survivorship bias” through bots and sock puppets adds an important dimension I hadn’t explicitly called out. It’s on target and this goes beyond traditional survivorship bias because we saw the takeover of Twitter for generating automated positive reviews and coordinated social media responses deliberately deployed to drown out systematic evidence of failures. It’s exactly these kinds of observations that help strengthen understanding of critical public safety issues.
Looking forward to continuing our conversations without the tie. You know I’m more comfortable talking data over coffee or in a diner than in those fancy government meetings anyway. Your support means a lot.