Putin continues to grind his own forces down, dug into hopeless trenches and holes, weakening Russian national security by the day.
Russian troops recently suffered their worst month for casualties since the country’s war with Ukraine began almost three years ago, the head of Britain’s armed forces said on Sunday.
At this rate perhaps the North Korean detachment of 12,000 would be eliminated in just one week.
North Korean soldiers ‘gun down Russian comrades’ in new frontline humiliation for Putin
Maybe even faster.
The rising war tragedy toll for Russia is now upwards of 700,000.
British defense intelligence estimates Russia has likely suffered more than 696,000 losses since the start of the full-scale invasion, a figure in line with Ukraine’s current total figure of 707,540 reported on Nov. 9.
Russia also lost nearly 20 armored fighting vehicles in just one day of October, bringing the total loss of these machines reported to 18,450.
Never forget that Russia’s initial 2022 invasion plan appeared based on a swift 3-day capture of Kyiv and regime change, drawing from their 2014 Crimea experience. Instead, they’re mired in what’s becoming a grinding positional war of attrition more reminiscent of WWI trenches than modern maneuver warfare.
Some historical context is perhaps needed:
- The Soviet-Afghan War lasted 9 years and saw ~15,000 Soviet deaths before withdrawal
- The Chechen Wars cost Russia roughly 11,000 troops over 10 years
- WWI trench warfare lasted 4 years with massive casualties
And on those points, here’s how
Russia is so much worse off in their current quagmire:
- Suffering casualties at far higher rate than those previous conflicts
- Unlike Afghanistan, this is depleting their core military strength on their own border
- Lost more equipment in 2 years than the USSR lost in 10 years in Afghanistan
- Sanctions and brain drain create compounding long-term weaknesses
Now the question becomes who can predict the key sustainability factors:
- Military: Throwing trained personnel into a meat grinder faster than they can replace them
- Industrial: Despite mobilizing entire citizen defense industry, can’t match equipment losses
- Economic: Adapted to sanctions, yet tech and industrial base rapidly degrading
- Political: Putin has locked himself away with a position where he can’t declare victory or admit defeat
This sustainability crisis also begs a question of how Elon Musk next intends to help Russia, and if the Logan Act will be enforced.