A friend of mine used to have a joke (although it’s true) about the errors of correlative reasoning:

Did you know that as ice-cream consumption goes up there will be more crime? More ice-cream is consumed in the summer, more crime is committed in the summer (when it is warm). Therefore the cause of both ice-cream consumption and crime is actually the rise in temperature.

I suppose he also could have said as crime goes up people start eating more ice-cream. Anyway, here is a bit of disturbing news about crime statistics in America:

In a shift from trends of the past decade, violent crime is on the rise, fueling criticism of Bush administration policies as a wave of murders and shootings hits smaller cities and states with little experience with serious urban violence.

From Kansas City, Missouri, to Indianapolis, Indiana, places that rarely attract notice on annual
FBI crime surveys are seeing significant increases in murder. Boston, once a model city in America’s battle against gun violence, is poised to eclipse last year’s homicide tally, which was the worst in a decade.

Explanations vary — from softer gun laws to budget cuts, fewer police on the beat, more people in poverty and simple complacency. But many blame a national preoccupation with potential threats from abroad.

Or maybe it’s just changes to the environment and things are warmer than usual…which also just happens to be something you can blame the Bush administration for handling poorly. Another perspective is provided by places that show a decline:

In Miami, while overall crime is down, the use of semi-automatic weapons is growing.

“These things are dirt cheap,” Police Chief John Timoney told Reuters, estimating the street price at $250 each. “We have seen these assault weapons being used time and time again by drug gangs.”

Is there less crime due to the increase of assault weapons, or an increase of assault weapons due to the efforts to reduce crime? Either way, domestic violence seems is becoming a hot topic of concern.