Jose Nazario suggests on his blog that Georgia has not been under cyber attack as some are starting to suggest:

While some are speculating about cyber-warfare and state sponsorship, we have no data to indicate anything of the sort at this time. We are seeing some botnets, some well known and some not so well known, take aim at Georgia websites. Note that RIA Novosti, a Russian news outlet, was apparently targeted during this fighting. Georgian hackers are accused of this event.

Compared to the May 2007 Estonian attacks, these are more intense but have lasted (so far) for less time. This could be due to a number of factors, including more sizable botnets with more bandwidth, better bandwidth at the victims, changes in our observations, or other factors.

Sounds a lot like an uncertainty principle sneaking into the calculations. He points towards other links that say there is no question Georgia is experiencing cyberwarfare. Unfortunately the term is too loosely defined to reconcile the perspectives.

Arbor’s point seems to be that no link to “state sponsorship” has been proven and so the attacks are not classified under warfare. On the other hand, political analysis done by Jose Nazario in his July 20th review of a DDoS that targeted the website for the President of Georgia highlights Russia-Georgia tension. Moreover The Register claims a link to state-sponsored system has been uncovered.

Arbor continues to prove that “weather map” technology for network behavior is one of the best ways to anticipate more conventional risks.