I have had several people ask about the possibility of terrorist activity related to the Colorado fires. There are two main factors to explore at this point. Recent intelligence reports coupled with the evidence of arson in proximity of inhabited areas make it impossible to rule out terrorism.
Intelligence reports
Terrorist groups on May 2nd, 2012 published details on how to use fire as a weapon, as reported by ABC news on May 3rd.
Several days later, on May 7th, 2012, the Denver Division of the FBI released a Criminal Activity Alert to raise awareness about wildfires and Al-Qaida. It mentioned the terrorist group was monitoring for the right conditions, such as high winds and dryness, to spread fires. By the end of the month a Homeland Security / DHS report was issued called “Terrorist Interest in Using Fire as a Weapon.”
For at least a decade, international terrorist groups and associated individuals have expressed interest in using fire as a tactic against the Homeland to cause economic loss, fear, resource depletion, and humanitarian hardship. There is no evidence that international terrorist groups and inspired individuals are responsible for any purposeful destruction of public or private property by setting wildfires in the United States. Using fire as a weapon, however, is inexpensive and requires limited technical expertise, giving it a strong advantage over other methods of attack. Statements advocating this tactic are most often found on violent extremist Web forums and in violent extremist propaganda.
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We have no indications AQAP or unaffiliated violent extremists are planning to act upon the suggestions contained in Inspire.
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We do not have any current intelligence indicating terrorists or violent extremists in the United States are planning to use fire as a weapon as described in Inspire magazine and online violent extremist forums. However, because terrorists have long shown interest in this tactic, which is inexpensive, low risk, and requires little technical knowledge, we encourage first responders to remain vigilant to indicators of the potential use of fire as a weapon
Evidence of Arson
It is not clear whether it is by “inspired individuals” or terrorists but reports indicate human fault during the exact conditions mentioned by the FBI.
Fire investigators believe the fire was sparked by someone participating in recreational shooting over the weekend, possibly by people shooting a gun at a fuel tank.
The latest Detailed Situation Report from the Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) for the Rocky Mountains (RMCC) has the following data showing rapid spread of fires in populated areas:
New Fires: 18
Acres: 54,105
Uncontrolled Fires: 7
InciWeb shows the proximity of the Waldo fire to Colorado Springs, forcing the evacuation of more than 30,000.
Here are recent photos taken by Phillip Smith in the Colorado Springs area
The GACC Large Incident Report gives current estimates such as the following:
Waldo Canyon Structures Threatened: 20,085 PRIM , 160 COMM
Waldo Canyon Costs to Date: $1,950,194
High Park Structures Threatened: 1,969 PRIM , 6 COMM
High Park Structures Destroyed: 257 PRIM , 52 OUTB
High Park Costs to Date: $33,100,000
Although these numbers are incredibly large and show the fires to be disastrous, the Incident Information System and National Interagency Fire Center puts them in context of national activity.
Large fire activity increased yesterday as 15 new large fires were reported: four in Montana, three in Alaska and Alabama, and one in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Firefighters contained five large fires, including the Dump and Grease fires in Utah.
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10 Year Average 2003-2012
Fires: 36,407
Acres: 1,931,551
The large fire data across the western states corresponds with their map of high risk areas.
It can also be compared to the current Large Fire Incidents map from the USDA Forest Service Active Fire Mapping Program.
So there is a strong correlation of intelligence data with evidence of arson, but cause still needs to be fully investigated.