White House Proposes America Try To “Sundown Town” COVID-19

Modern “Sundown Town” sign by a county’s “elected sheriff…in the position for 23 years who personally paid for the $553 sign, which includes an image of the county’s official seal.” Source: RawStory

I see reporters trying to find a normal angle when they write about a very abnormal announcement today on American risk management during a pandemic:

…a new plan to reopen swaths of the country shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic via a targeted, county-by-county mitigation effort…administration would categorize counties as “high risk, medium risk and low risk.” This would allow areas less impacted by the virus to put in place looser restrictions than ones that have been ravaged by the illness. It’s uncertain how effective such labels may be in containing the virus, however, given that asymptomatic carriers may move from region to region undetected…

Uncertain? It’s pretty clear just like using racist taunts to distract from a global pandemic this is not about containing the virus, it’s about restructuring power in America.

Looser restrictions in a county would encourage movement into it by the most contagious people (the asymptomatic). ScienceNews warns, for example. “Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms“. Low risk counties would allow movement of the most high risk, which sounds plain stupid and dangerous.

So it begs an all too important question of how counties surrounded by high risk could even be expected to enforce tests of the asymptomatic at borders; how would they stay low risk while encouraging those most at risk to move about more? But wait one minute, what if that’s the wrong question entirely and there’s no intent to stop the spread of the virus?

Who gains new enforcement powers, and why, is the real key to this story.

The idea of county authority being used to stop the spread of a virus, thus bypassing the legal authority of states in favor of its counties, makes no sense until you move into a completely different frame of reference.

The White House giving a nod directly to county law enforcement for the special position to trap and keep people away who pose a “threat” to their jurisdiction…has a particular significance in politics and in American history.

America’s Black Holocaust explains how someone accustomed to exclusionary thinking might settle on counties being the preferred unit to handle boundary enforcement powers in America.

Beginning in about 1890 and continuing until 1968, white Americans established thousands of towns across the United States for whites only. Many towns drove out their black populations, then posted sundown signs. Others passed laws barring African Americans after dark or prohibiting them from owning or renting property. Still others just harassed and even killed those who violated the custom. Some sundown towns also kept out Jews, Chinese, Mexicans, Native Americans, or other groups. Sundown towns range in size from tiny villages to cities. There are also many “sundown suburbs” and neighborhoods -– and even entire counties.

Even entire counties.

How have counties handled enforcement of borders, especially when it comes to keeping non-whites out? The answer is a colonial-era concept of the Sheriff, an elected and very political position without accountability.

Don’t believe anyone who suggests Sheriffs are automatically somehow representative of their county population’s best interests, given they may be elected without any real qualifications at all. Also, when we look across America, the data says 80% are white and only 41 out of 3,000 are women.

Here’s an example of a Sheriff’s bizarre response to the pandemic:

…the government had forced the unnamed [infectious COVID-19] man to stay in his home. But this week, Nelson County Sheriff Ramon Pineiroa told the Kentucky Standard that deputies will park outside of the man’s home for 24 hours a day for two weeks.

Parking multiple deputized people outside a man’s home 24 hours a day is a taxpayer-funded protest, not a quarantine. They might as well be burning a cross on his lawn to send him a message about what happens if he leaves his home.

In case you missed the other news in the past year or so, it has been that Sheriffs in America are agitating for even more unaccountable power. They sometimes have a particularly virulent strains of extreme right-wing thinking and see themselves as militants at war with other Americans.

With his red “Make America Great” hat prominently displayed in his office here in Titusville, Ivey is part of a wave of county sheriffs who feel emboldened by [the White House occupant’s] agenda, becoming vocal foot soldiers in the nation’s testy political and culture wars.

The 2018 National Sheriffs Association event also recently brought forward some gushing commentary about how the White House and American political seats of county law enforcement are in lock-step.

“[Shaking hands with the White House occupant] was a highlight of what I have been doing all these years,” [Dickson County Sheriff] Bledsoe added. “It was a privilege and honor to be a part of that and meeting other sheriffs and having some common goals…”

A Sheriff having common goals with the current White House should concern everyone in America, if history is any guide.

Of course you might say not all Sheriffs are bad in America, and you’d be right. But think of it this way instead, Sheriffs who are the most loyal to the White House agenda would get discretionary powers while Sheriffs who don’t offer enough fealty get ranked as high risk until they are voted out.

I’ve written about problems like this here before in regard to a particular 2019 Sheriff in Iowa who arrested two men as they were working on a security project, because he didn’t like being audited and didn’t respect any higher authority than himself:

Sheriff Arrested Coalfire’s Pentest Team. Was it a Case of Posse Comitatus?

I’ve also written about it here before in regard to a particular 1960 Sheriff in Arkansas who murdered an innocent black man, fabricated a story about it with fake evidence and intimidated witnesses into silence, and faced no consequences:

1960 Police Murder of Marvin Williams. How is This Not a Movie?

And I’ve even written about it here before in regard to a particular 1917 Sheriff in Arizona engaging in militant “culture war” (ethnic cleansing):

Ethnic Cleansing in America: 1917 Bisbee Deportation

A bonus reference is that last blog post includes yet another example, the 1897 Lattimer massacre:

…Polish, Slovak, Lithuanian and German miners killed by being shot in the back by a Sheriff who decided to end legal protests by murdering everyone.

Sure there are good Sheriffs, but this is really about shifting dramatic new amounts of power to the bad ones.

There’s little positive outcome I see ahead from an America First platform of the White House when it uses a cover of pandemic concerns to propose more labeling and discriminatory power go directly to counties for their Sheriffs to enforce. Let’s be clear here that America First in 1916 meant KKK, in 1936 it meant Nazis…today it still means the same things.

America First political rally participants in their traditional garb.

These are the people who thrive on social unrest coming from high unemployment and who use fear-laced xenophobia to seize excessive powers through militant actions in what they see as their “culture war” (ethnic cleansing) to preserve white supremacy.

…a neo-Nazi movement leader based in northern Europe, said that he welcomed the pandemic as a necessary step to help create the world that his group wants to see. …it’s possible that a member of the target audience will decide to take action and commit an act of violence.

To me the announcement today has every appearance of turning America backwards 150 years towards the kind of white police state organized at the county-level that extremist right-wing violent groups like “Posse Comitatus” and “Citizens for Constitutional Freedom”, let alone America First, have very long dreamed about.

Ari Ne’eman, a scholar at Brandeis University, put it best when she said:

What this is really about at the end of the day is whether our civil rights laws still apply in a pandemic. I think that’s a pretty core question as to who we are as a country.

Anyone who knows a little Sundown Town history, or has spent time inside white supremacist groups, probably heard some very familiar and distinct sounds being whistled today.

Published 2018 by The New Press
ISBN:1620974347
(ISBN13: 9781620974346)

“…although many former sundown towns are now integrated, they often face ‘second-generation sundown town issues,’ such as in Ferguson, Missouri, a former sundown town that is now majority black, but with a majority-white police force.”

And now this…

The Influenza, 1890

A poem written in 1890 by Winston Churchill

Oh how shall I its deeds recount
Or measure the untold amount
Of ills that it has done?
From China’s bright celestial land
E’en to Arabia’s thirsty sand
It journeyed with the sun.

O’er miles of bleak Siberia’s plains
Where Russian exiles toil in chains
It moved with noiseless tread;
And as it slowly glided by
There followed it across the sky
The spirits of the dead.

The Ural peaks by it were scaled
And every bar and barrier failed
To turn it from its way;
Slowly and surely on it came,
Heralded by its awful fame,
Increasing day by day.

On Moscow’s fair and famous town
Where fell the first Napoleon’s crown
It made a direful swoop;
The rich, the poor, the high, the low
Alike the various symptoms know,
Alike before it droop.

Nor adverse winds, nor floods of rain
Might stay the thrice-accursed bane;
And with unsparing hand,
Impartial, cruel and severe
It travelled on allied with fear
And smote the fatherland.

Fair Alsace and forlorn Lorraine,
The cause of bitterness and pain
In many a Gaelic breast,
Receive the vile, insatiate scourge,
And from their towns with it emerge
And never stay nor rest.

And now Europa groans aloud,
And ‘neath the heavy thunder-cloud
Hushed is both song and dance;
The germs of illness wend their way
To westward each succeeding day
And enter merry France.

Fair land of Gaul, thy patriots brave
Who fear not death and scorn the grave
Cannot this foe oppose,
Whose loathsome hand and cruel sting,
Whose poisonous breath and blighted wing
Full well thy cities know.

In Calais port the illness stays,
As did the French in former days,
To threaten Freedom’s isle;
But now no Nelson could o’erthrow
This cruel, unconquerable foe,
Nor save us from its guile.

Yet Father Neptune strove right well
To moderate this plague of Hell,
And thwart it in its course;
And though it passed the streak of brine
And penetrated this thin line,
It came with broken force.

For though it ravaged far and wide
Both village, town and countryside,
Its power to kill was o’er;
And with the favouring winds of Spring
(Blest is the time of which I sing)
It left our native shore.

God shield our Empire from the might
Of war or famine, plague or blight
And all the power of Hell,
And keep it ever in the hands
Of those who fought ‘gainst other lands,
Who fought and conquered well.

And a map of “Impact of the Russian Flu on the United States, 1889-1890” by Tom Ewing

E. Thomas Ewing, Veronica Kimmerly, and Sinclair Ewing-Nelson, “’Look Out for La Grippe’: Using Digital Humanities Tools to Interpret Information Dissemination during the Russian Flu, 1889-1890.” Medical History Vol. 60, Issue 1 (January 2016), pp. 129-131. DOI 10.1017/mdh.2015.84

Bicycles Deemed Best NYC Transit During Pandemic

Proper bike lane on NYC Chrystie Street between Canal Street and 2nd Street. Image: Gothamist, NYC DOT

Nearly a decade ago I wrote about the increase in bicycle sales after disasters.

I won’t go into why people moved away from these logical options for transportation and to the illogical gasoline automobile. Kunstler does a good job of that in The Geography of Nowhere. Instead, I want to point out here that the recent tsunami devastation in Japan is showing a sudden uptick in two-wheeled commuters.

At no point in that post or since have I thought about the use of bicycles during a pandemic. I suppose my assumption was breathing would be elevated, increasing risk of infection or spreading the virus faster somehow.

I’ve also more recently written about the ridiculous state of bicycling in NYC, according to the data, ranking them near the bottom of America.

The city has a pollution-loving history with a huge “we’re busy trying to get rich/famous, leave us alone” lobby that claims doing the right thing for “others” is economically unfeasible in their list of priorities.

Color me completely surprised, therefore, when I read that NYC in pandemic disaster mode is accelerating bike lanes and recommending people cycle.

In early March, de Blasio encouraged commuters to “bike or walk” to reduce the spread of COVID-19 if they had to travel, and New Yorkers listened: According to the city’s Department of Transportation, bike traffic over its bridges has dramatically increased this month compared to the same time last year. Citi Bike also saw demand surge 67 percent in early March.

Very few cars are on the road, streets are mostly empty. Thus the risk of being hit and killed has suddenly evaporated. On top of that the air is incredibly clean now. And if that wasn’t enough, studies show cycling boosts your immune system.

Since cyclists tend to use physical distancing measures anyway when they ride, now that I think about it, the pandemic shelter in place instructions (keep 6 feet separation) are natural and easy to abide.

With all that in mind, the Big Apple is really ramping up their bike infrastructure right now.

DOT spokesperson Brian Zumhagen says the agency is looking at “using cones or movable barriers” to create temporary bike paths with space from traffic lanes, and may designate new parking for bikes on sidewalks and in pedestrian plazas. DOT is also working with Citi Bike to add more docks in parts of Manhattan.

On March 20, de Blasio announced that the city is rolling out new, temporary bike lanes on Second Avenue in Manhattan between 34th and 42nd streets and on parts of Smith Street in Brooklyn that doesn’t already have a bike lane.

“We’ll be looking for other areas all over the city that need them,” de Blasio told reporters at a Friday press conference announcing the new lanes. “Certainly want to encourage people to use bikes as much as they can at this moment…

Amazing. In just a week, due to the shift from selfish to societal impact values, NYC has flipped from dangerously car-heavy bottom-ranked streets for cycling to a Mayor encouraging bikes as much as possible.

Add pandemics to the list of disasters that lead to increased bicycle sales.

And yes, bike stores in NYC are staying open as some make the wise claim that repair shops qualify as “essential” (given that automotive repair is listed).

“Please Inform Your Readers”: Best and Worst Visualizations of COVID-19

I’ve written several times about big data and visualization issues for the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • March 3: Visualizing Coronavirus Spread: Many Tools, Results Vary Widely
  • March 8: America Admits to Cooking its Numbers on Coronavirus
  • March 11: Why Big Data Missed Early Warning Signs of COVID-19

As a long-time researcher of big data security, the most important problem space always has been one of data integrity, no matter how many times the market tries to shift everyone’s focus onto confidentiality (encryption, encryption, encryption).

Why do we care about data integrity here, or more specifically about test results on a dashboard? A recent Guardian article explains the significance with a simple metaphor to tell us how badly the White House is mismanaging security science:

Trying to combat the disease without testing is like running through a forest blindfolded – it’s not going to end well.

I would only add to that we’re entering a situation where we don’t control the running part, a virus does. The speed of movement is more like being caught in an avalanche and there’s a quote that always runs through my mind when I’m on steep terrain in deep snow:

…sparse trees do nothing but provide things for you to hit as you’re swept away.

First, the Worst.

America’s CDC has one of the worst, if not the worst, dashboard in the world. I’m embarrassed to even post it here. Don’t look. It’s pointless. Until they figure out that Alaska is part of the US, I’ve given up even trying to rationalize how badly CDC is doing.

Instead, I offer you a visualization by Buzzfeed News of small data about the White House itself, which shows spread of the virus due to obvious failure in leadership (lack of proactive distancing and testing).

Next, an honorable mention in this worst category is the much celebrated Johns Hopkins University dashboard. A good attempt, yet perhaps a dangerous lesson in failures.

It sadly appears to be broken and untrustworthy while being heavily cited as a success. In the three links at the start of this blog I’ve warned about their issues before (e.g. with everyone predicting NYC being a hot spot yet their map failing to represent growing cases). I also just noticed there’s a site that depends heavily on the dashboard, which now carries a very disturbing warning at the top.

Johns Hopkins university, the source of almost all of the charts, maps and tables below, is currently experiencing technical issues. The visualizations that show cases in the US, in China and worldwide over time are therefore incorrect. If you’re using them in your articles, please inform your readers about the issue.

Dear reader (hi mom!) consider yourself informed… again.

To be fair it’s a little unfair to call it the John’s Hopkins University dashboard when a graduate student (Ensheng Dong) built it for (or with) Lauren Gardner, Professor of civil and systems engineering.

Also I have to give a shout out to Splunk. They tend to be known for over-priced proprietary data quicksand, yet they’ve very nicely announced removing their usual red flags by offering an app via github for COVID-19 data.

While we will continue to expand our app and add features, we understand that others have their own ideas of how to visualize this data. Feel free to clone this app and create your own version, or get in touch with us… to collaborate and submit data and visualizations that you think others may find useful in the publicly available app.

There’s just a little problem. Can you understand this chart?

It reminds me of this old National Geographic chart of “Vaccine Victories” but gone completely wrong.

Hate to be cynical in the face of a gift horse, yet that default visualization for a flagship dashboard is so illegible… no wonder they’re giving it away and asking for community to do better. It just maybe is why they’re pushing the general public to post ideas so they can then commercialize it and make money off pandemic volunteers. I know, too cynical.

By the way, does anyone really want to use “Day 62.5” in a chart?

Second, the Best.

Singapore is unquestionably the best national site. It baffles me why the US federal government couldn’t grab Kibana and put this together in a week at most.

The first cases come around January 20th and growth is contained. It’s all very easy to see, and they offer numerous ways to pivot the data by demographics and region over time. It’s so good, I just imagine a competent White House would have had a same or better one by end of January at the latest.

On a more local level, and also in the US, Washington State Hospital Association has posted a fascinating new map by Albert Froling using Tableau.

The “testings” donut on the lower right is my favorite widget, although it tells us 8% of tests are positive when we really should want to know what percentage of the total population has been tested and when. Anyway, the whole thing feels masterful after playing with so many bad examples.

Meanwhile the White House is attacking Washington state leaders using cheap name-calling and jealous taunts.

In remarks that many found confounding and frightening, [White House occupant] described the governor of Washington state as a “snake”, praised his own expertise and falsely claimed that anyone who wants a coronavirus test can get one. Pence was later forced to correct this.

It only stands to reason that the federal and Washington state visualizations of virus test results are complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

Third, the Tactical.

Washington Post has done a great job capturing and applying the classic contagion lessons of big data visualizations.

They’ve taken the vaccination simulations, everyone knows all too well in visualization templates and games to learn from, and made an extremely useful point about why social distancing action was needed immediately after the first cases were confirmed.

Perhaps even more importantly the above illustration shows why quarantines aren’t as effective as social distancing.

The same article shows Jan 21 was the first confirmed case and distancing wasn’t started, tests were not being done at scale, due to sheer incompetence of US government leadership. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are likely to die based on unnecessary delays and indecision by the White House.

Let’s be honest here, it’s March 14 and tests still are not done at scale. The White House only started to actually pay attention after financial markets reacted to the White House lack of reaction and everything crashed; by then it was far too late to turn back the clock and start effective early virus response. It’s such a tragedy to see very clearly in the visualization here how an easily predictable and well known exponential curve was ignored until too late.

The Washington Post sends a warning simply and clearly:

If the number of cases would continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May. That is math, not prophecy.

China is right now counting about 81,000 cases, for perspective.

Now let’s go back up and marvel again at how math is driving the Singapore dashboard, and the very clear and transparent fact that they have a flat line instead of an exponential curve.


Update March 15: I’ve been asked to list some of the other sites considered, beyond those already mentioned in the previous blog posts (e.g. NYT, Hong Kong). Here is a short-list for review. Let me know if you agree or disagree with my worst/best results.