Over 20K Dead in NYC: 30 Days of COVID-19

The numbers are expected to go even higher, but for now the NYT has said it’s reasonable to assume 20,000 people in NYC were killed in just 30 days.

Part of the reason for the revised count has been COVID-19 visualizations that compare current death rates against historic ones.

Source: NYT

The empire state building looking thing on the right is the rate of death in NYC during COVID-19 relative to the historic rates to the left.

The Financial Times did a similar analysis globally.

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported: Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

Source: FT

This kind of comparison of current deaths against historic averages seems an extremely wise way to estimate severity of COVID-19 right now for several reasons:

First: COVID-19 autopsies have confirmed the early signs that the virus kills people in novel ways.

We already heard that EMT crews couldn’t keep defibrillator batteries charged during a single shift because cardiac arrest calls during the pandemic suddenly tripled or higher.

EMT also reported unexpected trauma of low survival rates.

The cardiac arrests are the hardest calls right now. More than once, we have been present at the moment of capture and yet were unable to save the patient. In the past, if a patient goes into cardiac arrest and we witness it or are there within three minutes, we can often save them. We use a defibrillator to shock them and restart their hearts. But for COVID-19 patients, this is not happening. We are not getting any of them back — and now the Department of Health doesn’t want us to bring dead patients to the hospital, so we are pronouncing them dead in the field and turning the bodies over to the police who have to wait for a coroner.

Second: CDC has started to release reports that even early February deaths in California homes were from COVID-19

Officials say they originally thought that the first COVID-19 death in the [Santa Clara] county was on March 9. Autopsies were performed on two people who died on February 6 and February 17. The CDC received tissue samples from the coroner and were able to confirm that both cases were positive for SARS-CoV-2. The third individual who died on March 6 was also confirmed to have been positive for COVID-19.

That death at the start of February was a woman who had a “burst heart”, further proving the point above about novel ways of COVID-19 killing people.

County health officials have said if they knew at the time the woman had coronavirus, they might have issued shelter in place orders earlier. […] “There’s an indication the heart was weakened.” [Dr. Judy Melinek, a Bay Area forensic pathologist who reviewed the autopsy report] said “The immune system was attacking the virus and in attacking the virus it damaged the heart and then the heart basically burst.” Dowd’s husband, citing his wife’s strong exercise habits and overall good health before falling ill, had requested an autopsy.

NYC still maintains that March 11 was their first date of death for a confirmed death, which obviously will need to be changed.

Given how a healthy American abruptly died February 6th from the virus, consider also how the White House was operating at that time. Just Security provides a detailed timeline:

February 10-March 2, 2020 … five rallies across the United States, each attracting thousands of attendees in confined spaces. The rallies take place in New Hampshire (2/10), Arizona (2/19), Colorado (2/20), Nevada (2/21), South Carolina (2/28), and North Carolina (3/2).

These rallies, like a death cult gathering, will most certainly be a cause of fatalities in America.

Third: Low numbers are controversial. I’ve been tracking death rates from the NYC Department of Health since the first cases reported (tragically unreported in the JHU dashboard, as I wrote about March 3rd).

When I posted this following chart the other day, for example, I immediately heard backlash from people with family in NYC. They complained deaths were known to be very high so there was no possible way my graph could have such low numbers showing a decline let alone tapering off.

Red is death, Grey is hospitalization.

It’s true, while the actual death rate is high, it likely is even higher than what these official NYC Department of Health numbers show. Confirmed COVID-19 test results increasingly looks like a subset of deaths far above normal trends compared to death rates of prior years.

I’m not saying the low count graph I made is wrong in terms of a trend. That trend is real and does reflect the case load on NYC services. The numbers definitely are in decline and pressure is considerably lower on EMT.

What’s surely low confidence is the daily count. When I can find the data and the time, I will add in a low/high estimate to show actual deaths daily and not just the shape of the pandemic curve.

One final thought. Often when I post a visualization of deaths some middle-aged white man invariably will come forward and say a per capita rate is the only thing that matters. Imagine a close relative dying and some random guy says to you “don’t worry, your sister’s death per capita is insignificant, given how siblings overall in this region are doing just fine”

Having to care about others drives some people to minimize human life through “per capita” models. Leaving off the per capita calculation tends to reveal callous and selfish thinking by viewers.

Per capita still has a place. Experts are good at finding ways to make different population numbers relevant (to measure likelihood or severity) yet that shouldn’t be turned by just anyone into a license to dismiss every human life as a percentages game.

The better model is vision zero, which says 40,000 American traffic deaths per year is 40,000 too many.

Replace Your Door Peephole With a DIY Thermal Camera

Source: not FLIR

In November 2019 a DIY article was posted on how to build and train an inexpensive RPi thermal camera.

Even with more complex network architectures, the optical model wouldn’t score above a 91% accuracy in detecting the presence of people, while the thermal model would achieve around 99% accuracy within a single training phase of a simpler neural network.

Despite the high potential, there’s not much out there in the market — there’s been some research work on the topic (if you google “people detection thermal camera” you’ll mostly find research papers) and a few high-end and expensive products for professional surveillance. In lack of ready-to-go solutions for my house, I decided to take on my duty and build my own solution — making sure that it can easily be replicated by anyone.

Now you can easily make one to mount on your door and give thermal readings for guests as well as announce known visitors.

The commercial FLIR thermal camera site gives this image as proof of its utility, although I expect they soon will update to reflect pandemic uses as well.

Source: FLIR

Not surprisingly, despite the long list of reasons to use thermal imaging (e.g. higher integrity of signal, more resilient to environmental interference) the EFF makes a very tone-deaf argument against its future use:

Terrorism is one thing — because it’s an ongoing problem. But there’s no reason why this kind of technology would need to stick around after the COVID-19 crisis is over.

That reads to me that the EFF believes after COVID-19 crisis is over there will no longer be any other threats, let alone a need for higher integrity in visual signals (e.g. authentication).

This Day in History: 1812 Luddites Attack to Save Society From Itself

“Luddites confined their attacks to manufacturers who used machines in what they called ‘a fraudulent and deceitful manner’ to get around standard labor practices. ‘They just wanted machines that made high-quality goods and they wanted these machines to be run by workers who had gone through an apprenticeship and got paid decent wages. Those were their only concerns.’ The British authorities responded by deploying armed soldiers to crush the protests.” Source: Smithsonian Magazine, 2011

People often incorrectly brand Luddites. The followers of a man named Ludd were very much in favor of proper and skilled (ethical) use of technology. But that’s not often what people mean when they invoke the Luddites.

Luddite advocacy was undermined by fraudulent counter-claims (those opposed tried to frame any ethical regulation of technology at all as an outright ban on use)… which resulted in armed aggression by private and government forces.

So why exactly were Luddites protesting for safety in technology and why were they shamelessly murdered for it?

On this day in 1812 a group of a hundred or more (some say thousands) Luddites near Manchester attempted to enter Burton’s Mill as a peaceful protest. Armed guards of the mill as well as British soldiers fired live rounds into the crowd, killing up to a dozen people.

Hopefully someday soon this unfair chapter in history will stand corrected, and the Luddites’ cause cleared.

It’s still a very common misnomer and easy to find people unfortunately saying Luddites were opposed to technology.

They were not.

Sites like the Smithsonian have tried to clarify, yet obviously more still needs to be said.

The label now has many meanings, but when the group protested 200 years ago, technology wasn’t really the enemy.

Technology was not the enemy of Luddites!

Perhaps it helps if I put it like this. To say Luddites were anti-technology is like saying Robin Hood was anti-technology. Could anyone say “Robin Hood really hated the bow and arrow”?

No. That makes no sense, yet Robin Hood in fact has a lot in common with the Luddites. His story was about a moralist’s use of bow and arrow (use of disruptive technology in his day towards victory, as proven in the 1415 Battle of Agincourt).

Robin Hood was a folk hero who popularly protested elites misusing technology to exploit the larger population.

Similarly to the legend of Robin Hood, a populist character of Ned Ludd rose out of the exact same Sherwood forest area of Nottingham. He also represented the fight for morality in the use of technology; Luddites demanded quality and expertise to be valued in technology above exploitation.

“It has been said that more British soldiers were fighting the Luddites than were fighting Napoleon on the Iberian Peninsula.” Source: Working Class Movement Library

The Luddites therefore were latter day Robin Hood adherents, experts at technology who disliked machinery owners doing things known to increase the death and suffering of a worker.

The Wailers famously wrote a more modern lament into their 1970s lyrics as:

Today they say that we are free
Only to be chained in poverty
Good God, I think it’s illiteracy
It’s only a machine that make money.

In some sense, you might say these protests made them hackers of their day, experts at machines while at the same time protesting misuse.

Texts were written about “machine breaking” that emphasized the need for improving safety and quality…

“Machine-Breaking, and the changes occasioned by it in the village of Turvey Down. A tale of the times,” November, 1830

Now think about their opposition. The heavily armed mill owners in 1800s, targeted by Luddites, were like the Sheriff of Sherwood Forrest only 400 years later.

I find some people in tech at first glance don’t want to be associated with Luddites. Yet in actual fact who really wants to associate instead with a Sheriff in Robin Hood’s time let alone four centuries afterward, let alone today?

Nottingham Forrest Sheriff, known for being “completely unsympathetic to the poverty of the town’s people, using immoral ways to collect taxes”

That is to say, in today’s terms, people in technology roles protesting immoral practices (e.g. the industrial dumpster fires of Zoom or Tesla) are… like the Luddites. Those (including myself) who have been calling for Zoom usage to be ended immediately are not rejecting technology — we’re holding it to a higher bar!

Luddites thus today would be the technical champions calling for and end to Zoom’s obviously deceitful and harmful business practices, and calling for technology made safer for everyone.

Those who have been taught that Luddites didn’t like technology thus have been misled; the entire point of the group was to righteously protest against immoral use of technology (wielded selfishly by owners towards obvious harms).

Even more tragically, people often leave out the fact that Luddites were ruthlessly murdered by factory gunmen and hanged for daring to defend society under a concept of greater good.

In truth, they inflicted less violence than they encountered. In one of the bloodiest incidents, in April 1812, some 2,000 protesters mobbed a mill near Manchester. The owner ordered his men to fire into the crowd, killing at least 3 and wounding 18. Soldiers killed at least 5 more the next day.

Earlier that month, a crowd of about 150 protesters had exchanged gunfire with the defenders of a mill in Yorkshire, and two Luddites died. Soon, Luddites there retaliated by killing a mill owner, who in the thick of the protests had supposedly boasted that he would ride up to his britches in Luddite blood. Three Luddites were hanged for the murder; other courts, often under political pressure, sent many more to the gallows or to exile in Australia before the last such disturbance, in 1816.

At least 8 killed in just one protest. Some estimates are double. But in all cases the government was using overwhelming force.

To be fair, Luddites reportedly also did commit violent acts against people, even though it ran counter their overall goals of social good.

Some claims were made that Luddites intimidated local populations into sheltering and feeding them, similar to charges against Robin Hood. That seems like dubious government propaganda, however, as Luddites were a populist movement and “melting away” was again a sign of popular support rather than violent intimidation tactics.

Indeed, more often there were accounts of Luddites sneaking into factories at night and cleverly taking soldiers’ guns away to destroy only the machines as a form of protest. People were set free and unharmed.

An exception was in the case above where a mill owner “boasted” of murdering Luddites and was arming guards and calling in the military… escalation unfortunately was set on a path where Luddites stepped up their defense/retaliation.

Don’t forget 1812 was a very violent time overall for the British, with tensions rising around inequality (food shortages) and protracted European war (1803–1815), including rising tangles with America over its relations with France.

Prime Minister Spencer Perceval, who extremely opposed the Luddites, was assassinated May 11, 1812 by a merchant named John Bellingham.

Bellingham walked up and shot Perceval point-blank, then calmly sat down on a bench nearby to wait his arrest. Conspiracy theories soon circled, suggesting American merchants and British banks were conspiring to end trade blockades with France.

A month after the May assassination was when the War of 1812 began with America.

All that being said, if you want to ensure technology improves, and doesn’t just exploit unsuspecting consumers to benefit a privileged few, read more about the populist Luddite as well as Robin Hood stories from Nottingham.

These legends represent disadvantaged groups appealing for justice against a tyranny of elites.

Also, consider how “General Ludd” was another (science) fiction about the Sherwood Forest by design.

Here’s a quick Ludd rhyme that was turned into a ticket to entry for meetings.

“This simple stamped ticket with its message showing support for General Ludd would have allowed entrance to one of the local meetings.” Source: Chethams

It was his (and Robin Hood’s) inauthenticity, as a face of the very real populist cause that made them impossible to kill.

On a remote yet related note, the “Jayhawk” was a mythical Irish bird that became the mascot of abolitionist militias in Kansas (and today is still the mascot of Kansas University)

The legend of Ludd kept “his” cause of justice alive despite overwhelming oppositional military forces. Allegedly British authorities invoked “posse comitatus” (it’s a thing Sheriffs are known to do) and deployed more military soldiers domestically to stop Luddites than during war with Napoleon.

Nottingham took on the appearance of a wartime garrison… authorities estimated the number of rioters at 3,000, but at any one time, no more than 30 would gather…

In American history we have similar heroes, such as the inauthentic yet also real General Tubman. She fought plantation owners in the same sense that Ludd fought mill owners; targeting the immoral use of machinery. The cotton engine (cotton ‘gin) was a machine invented to end slavery (by Catherine Greene), yet its IP was stolen and turned into a reason to expand and perpetuate slavery.

Surely slave owners would have called Tubman an anti-technology radical at war with their manufacturing if they could have made such absurd accusations stick (instead of her being remembered rightly as an American patriot, veteran, abolitionist and human rights champion).

Anonymous Donates Rare Film to Bletchley Park

Codebreakers seen working at Bletchley Park in rare old film reel recently revealed.

Big news from the Park itself:

Dr. David Kenyon, Research Historian at Bletchley Park highlights the rarity of this find: “No other film footage of a site intimately connected with Bletchley Park exists. We don’t know who filmed it and the footage doesn’t gives away any state secrets or any clues about the work the people in it are doing. If it fell into the wrong hands, it would have given little away, but for us today, it is an astonishing discovery and important record of one of the most secret and valuable aspects of Bletchley Park’s work.”

The reel of wartime footage, preserved in its original canister, has been donated to Bletchley Park by a donor who wishes to remain anonymous.

A 5 minute documentary about the new film already has been posted to YouTube