Security

Russian Incompetence Opened Door to American Cleanup of Chemical Weapons

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Rolling Stone has a detailed report on how America pressed forward confidently on chemical weapons cleanup after getting blank stares from their Russian counterparts.

In Geneva, as the team supporting Kerry was hammering out the details, it seemed like Russia had already lost interest in the endeavor. “We give them a piece of paper that says what we think the plan should be, and they just go, ‘Yeah, that looks fine to us,’ ” Cinnamon, who’d flown to Europe to aid negotiations, recalls. “They didn’t even look at it. They’re like, ‘I don’t care. You guys are going to fail. Write whatever you want.’ We kind of look at each other like, ‘Well, if we can write whatever we want, then . . . let’s just go for -everything.’ ”

This was perceived as indifference or apathy at the time because Americans vastly over-estimated the competence of Russian officials. The reason “they didn’t even look at it” and were like “don’t care” or “you guys are going to fail” is actually explained by basic incompetence of the Russian dictatorship.

It would be like showing the same things to someone in the Trump family.

Perhaps most interesting is that this amazing security operations success story both gives foreshadowing of Russian incompetence during the invasion of Ukraine, and also is done in a very modest context. The architects even say it would be awkward to boast about it while other work needs to be done. The best operators do not talk loudly about American operations.

Food, Poetry, Security

Rural American Healthcare During COVID19 Worse Than 3rd World

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The entire notion of a “3rd World” is a weird political framing of the world by the French. Economist Alfred Sauvy in 1952 spoke of Africa and Asia being like France’s “Third Estate“.

The vast majority of people (over 90%) in pre-Revolution France belonged neither to a clergy (1st) nor nobility (2nd), had less privileges and were unrepresented in government; this imbalance led to their Revolution.

With that in mind, Politico has an article making it clear that rural Americans are tiny in number and spread out, which leads worse healthcare than in the worst in the world.

“We have a residency program at Guyana, on the coast of South America,” Russ said. “These are the types of things that [I see] when I go down and work in Guyana. We see this for the Amerindian population that are coming out of the villages and need a canoe to get, you know, to a hospital. This isn’t the type of thing that we’re used to seeing in the United States.”

Tennessee lost over 1,200 staffed hospital beds between 2010 and 2020 despite a population that grew by over half a million, according to the American Hospital Directory and census data. Mississippi, with the most Covid-19 deaths per capita, lost over 1,100 beds over that decade. Alabama, second only to Mississippi in per-capita deaths from the virus, lost over 800.

Apparently living in rural America with a need for healthcare is like having a canoe without a paddle.

Or, as Dolly Parton famously sang, life on a mountain in Tennessee is hard.

Didja know corn don’t grow at all on Rocky Top?
The dirt’s too rocky by far
And that’s why all the folks on Rocky Top
Get their corn from a jar

Apparently nobody thought to put dirt in a jar and grow fresh corn. Yee haw.

But seriously those lyrics are about the rural community suspicion of federal government (e.g. prohibition and the history of bourbon, which is basically alcohol encoded as corn in a jar).

They come right after lyrics about killing the federal agents who visited.

Once two strangers climbed ol’ Rocky Top
Lookin’ for a moonshine still
Strangers ain’t come down from Rocky Top
Reckon they never will

As much as scarcity of services may seem like news, also I remember experiencing it myself in rural America for decades. A trip to a hospital was considered a minimum 30 minute drive. Even that was to what felt like an outpost where chance of meeting someone with any clue about science was marginal at best.

More recently when I tried to setup a primary care physician — a step required to use health insurance — I was told there was no availability. Doctors would not accept any new patients because healthcare crisis (COVID19) meant they had zero capacity. At one point the American healthcare “system” advised I try to find the rare Muslim woman doctor because they estimated (without explaining why) she would be most likely to have availability and take new patients.

Energy, Security

Tesla Labeled Deceptive by Owner Desperate for Repairs

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The 2021 JD Powers quality rankings clearly put Tesla very low on the list.

When you think about Chrysler (despite recalls for batteries that catch on fire) being even more dependable than a Tesla, it says a lot!

Years ago experts tried to point this out by referencing Kia (before it turned things around) but who really listened? (Hint: NOT Tesla)

Sandy Munro, who tears apart and reverse-engineers cars to assess quality, issued a brutal appraisal of the Model 3 citing “flaws that we would see on a Kia in the ’90s.”

In other words, Kia grew dramatically better from feedback while Tesla only seems to be getting worse. A recent study put it as:

The only thing reliabile about Teslas is their poor reliability.

No wonder stories like the following nightmare have become regular updates in the news:

…a bone-chilling problem has prompted a recall on some Tesla models. The issue has left owners stuck without heat in the dead of winter…

That flaw was from poor engineering practices, with Tesla trying to cut corners even when it puts owners in serious risk. The ironically named HotCars says Tesla is intentionally lowering quality:

Not everything on a Tesla is inherently low-quality, but Tesla is certainly cutting corners.

Even China, the epicenter of cutting corners, has recently tried to heap shame on quality of the Tesla brand as very far below expectations (with Tesla clocking a sad 133 failures per 100 cars — averaging more than one for every car).

An example of how this serious lack of quality in Tesla plays out comes from a self-described “very active EV advocate” who seems to be spending huge amounts of time on a basic flaw, and has announced arbitration in an attempt to get a repair done.

I am convinced that Tesla is well aware that they are installing faulty battery PCSs in the penthouse. In fact, Tesla once issued a Technical Service Bulletin about the “HV Battery System,” which states that “For certain Model 3 vehicles, the power conversion system needs replacement.” Although the bulletin projects dates for the vehicles possibly affected (the earliest, one month after I took delivery), it does not clarify why those PCSs had a problem. Were they from a different manufacturer, design, material, or build than other PCSs installed before and after those dates? I strongly suspect that, in reality, Tesla has been installing the very same, identical PCSs in the Model 3 for years, both before and after that Service Bulletin, and has failed to inform all Model 3 owners of the potential problem.

This would explain why an increasing number of owners are now finding that this integral part of the Battery and Drive Unit System is starting to fail after 3, 4, 5 years of ownership —in my case after only 3 years and 9 months. It is apparent that these battery PCSs are of poor design and quality, faulty, prone to break down, and Tesla is trying to pass the hefty expense of these failures on to owners…

The blog post links to many Tesla owners suffering similar problems and offers this scathing analysis of Tesla business practices.

Tesla has bragged that the maintenance and repair costs for its vehicles are so low that they make their higher purchase prices more affordable than a gas car over a lifetime of ownership. With the Service Center refusing to cover faulty —and expensive!— PCSs under the Battery and Drive Unit Warranty, Tesla’s braggadocio about such costs now strikes me disingenuous —if not deceptive.

And on that disgruntled owner note “Tesla is the only automaker that has chosen not to grant J.D. Power permission to survey its owners in all 50 states.” In other words the Tesla score could be even worse if its owners were actually allowed to speak.

Security

China Indicates Russian Invasion of Ukraine “an irreversible mistake”

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Hu Wei in the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association has many harsh words for Russia.

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controversy in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.

[…]

In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

[…]

China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible.

This clarion call for separation comes among reports that Russia is desperate for help with logistics; Putin has been caught begging China for humanitarian aid to feed his now desperately starving and freezing soldiers.

Among the assistance Russia requested was pre-packaged, non-perishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges that military analysts and officials say have stymied Russian progress in Ukraine — and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military. Forward-deployed units have routinely outstripped their supply convoys and open source reports have shown Russian troops breaking into grocery stores in search of food as the invasion has progressed. One of the sources suggested that food might be a request that China would be willing to meet, because it stops short of lethal assistance that would be seen as deeply provocative by the west.

Worth noting perhaps is that a Chinese MRE might not be what Russians are used to eating. Americans apparently find them something less than “morale boosting”.