Why Did the Bayesian Sink? Video of Palermo Storm That Hit the Lynch Superyacht

That’s a lot of wind on the ground.

Still, such a large ocean-going “super” yacht sinking so abruptly has been raising many questions about what went wrong.

A fisherman described seeing the yacht sinking “with my own eyes”. Speaking to the newspaper Giornale di Sicilia, the witness said he was at home when the tornado hit. “Then I saw the boat, it had only one mast, it was very big,” he said. Shortly afterwards he went down to the Santa Nicolicchia bay in Porticello to get a better look at what was happening. He added: “The boat was still floating, then all of a sudden it disappeared. I saw it sinking with my own eyes.”

One notable fact is the yacht boasted having the 2nd tallest aluminum mast in the world. It was allegedly 75m, a substantial surface area even when bare.

Photo taken the evening before it sank. Source: Twitter

The boom also appears to be absurdly large, likely a roller-furl system for the huge main. Such a mast and boom would have presented a huge pressure area for a dangerous storm.

Just for quick reference, vesselfinder says the draught is a shallow 3.8m even underway!

(A superyacht site claims the full draught can reach 9.73m). If that 3.8m is true draught, the yacht was built with a ratio of over 75m above versus less than 4m below the waterline when anchored.

You can do the math for a hurricane force hitting that stick sideways.

Actually, I’m far too curious to leave it at that… so here’s a quick estimate.

Multiplying the yacht’s displacement (473,000kg) by Earth’s gravitational force (9.81m/s²) and the yacht’s righting arm (2.75m based on its 11m beam), its righting moment would be approximately 12,750,000 Newton-meters (Nm). The dangerous heeling moment would be where a 75m mast is hit with 170,000 Newtons of wind force (F x 75 = 12,750,000).

To calculate a dangerous wind speed (V²), we use air density (1.225kg/m3), mast drag coefficient (1.2), mast surface area (200m²), and that wind force. The equation looks like this:

170,000 = 0.5 x 1.225 x 1.2 x 200 x V²

Solving for V, we find that a dangerous wind speed is 34 m/s.

This means a sideways wind at around 80 mph could be strong enough to tip the yacht over far enough to take on water in a sudden instant, even with only the mast exposed. The crew allegedly said there was something like a 20 degree heel initially (already quite a lot), which had them running about trying to secure things, and then a sudden sinking.

The video above, along with reports of waterspouts/downbursts/tornadoes suddenly appearing in the area, suggests a sufficient wind force was present. Here’s just one of many examples recorded during the day:

Presuming the abrupt storm wind shifted to full abeam (because fore or aft wouldn’t be a risk), the force hitting bare mast and boom from the side while anchored, she may have been pressed hard onto her starboard ear and pinned under water by the anchor. This is a familiar story, unfortunately, for huge ships lost at sea.

…the Concordia had proven herself a very able sea-boat able to stand up to hurricane-force winds,” he says. “But 40-plus knots of wind directed downward after the vessel had heeled to deck-edge immersion angle is another story.

Looking at the weather history, we see some of this evidence. A predominant westerly breeze of 10-15 after midnight suddenly jumps 90 degrees from the north and over 40mph at 3:50AM.

Wind Speed Palermo. Source: WunderGround 2024-08-19

That’s a reading near the ground, which is important context. The higher and more exposed, the windier and gustier in some storms (downburts tend to concentrate force at lower levels). If the storm had unlimited fetch to build strength before impact, a 40mph ground reading could have been upwards of 60mph above 50m.

Who could have seen it coming? Who could have predicted this tragic design configuration failure (anchored with reduced draught in a storm blowing sideways)? Bayes…

Bayesian theory for risk prediction is how the owner made his billions, thus renaming his $30M superyacht Bayesian before the most ironic sinking in history.

A yacht like the Bayesian is designed to heel when underway. Being knocked over by winds over 40mph at 4am on anchor means that it also might have had doors and hatches open, allowing water to rush in and push her down. But the speed of sinking suggests more like a total knock-down. When the mast hits water, it’s plausible half the hull is under immense pressure of doors or windows being smashed open by heavy flooding.

The Kiwi skipper of a superyacht that sank off Sicily after being hit by a tornado has told Italian media: “We didn’t see it coming.”

All that being said, this tragedy of a half dozen lives gets a lot more attention than the hundreds being killed by Tesla

Tesla Semi in “Veered” Crash: 12 Hour Toxic Fire Shuts Down California I-80

Source: CalTrans

A Tesla Semi without a trailer suddenly veered off an Interstate into a tree (like so many other Tesla do) and exploded with such an intense 1,000 degree fire, it shut all lanes down.

The crash occurred around 3:15 a.m. near Emigrant Gap where an electric vehicle traveling eastbound at the Laing Road offramp crashed onto the right shoulder and into trees, according to the California Highway Patrol’s incident log. Officer Jason Lyman, a spokesman for the CHP’s Gold Run office, said that only one vehicle was involved and that the driver was not injured. Lyman said the white Tesla Semi truck was without a trailer when it was headed uphill west of Yuba Gap. Investigators were still trying to piece together what led the Tesla to leave the roadway, he said.

Headed uphill without a trailer?

That’s not a typical loss of control for a Semi, as it could just stop under its own weight. Crashed using the offramp? The 3am suggests mistake, but the Tesla Semi also has a sordid history of critical failures like screens going blank and sudden steering loss.

Police say all eastbound traffic was turned around. Westbound traffic was diverted. And they called the Tesla explosion a toxic plume.

3 More Victims Found of 1921 Tulsa Massacre

American history is full of censorship and denials, as evidenced perhaps best by the KKK controlling the Oklahoma narrative for so long.

The massacre took place over two days in 1921, a long-suppressed episode of racial violence that destroyed a community known as Black Wall Street and ended with as many as 300 Black people killed, thousands of Black residents forced into internment camps overseen by the National Guard and more than 1,200 homes, businesses, schools and churches destroyed.

It’s 2024 and American families are still just now learning what happened 100 years ago to their relatives under extremist violent racism directed and spread by President Woodrow Wilson.

The three are among 11 sets of remains exhumed during the latest excavation in Oaklawn Cemetery, state archaeologist Kary Stackelbeck said Friday.

“Two of those gunshot victims display evidence of munitions from two different weapons,” Stackelbeck said. “The third individual who is a gunshot victim also displays evidence of burning.”

Evidence of burning. The U.S. government is clearly implicated in racist executions, concentration camps, mass graves, and even burning the bodies… a decade before Nazi Germany. Why do you think Hitler openly boasted Henry Ford was his big inspiration, or why Hitler named his personal train the “Amerika”? Nazi Germany looked to the American violent systemic suppression of non-whites as a rough blueprint for genocode.

The Tulsa victims were decorated veterans and successful business people, targeted within just one area in a large coordinated nation-wide terror campaign that had lasted years (e.g. “Red Summer” in nearly 30 cities); to remove and block all prosperity of American Blacks. It was made easy to hide under President Wilson and his toxic nativist “America First” slogan. For example, he had ordered all Blacks segregated and removed from positions of government. He even sent federal troops to round up and murder Black farmers in Arkansas after they organized meetings, so the very act of group speech to represent Black voices was systematically interrupted and criminalized.

President Wilson replied… that he had made “no promises in particular to Negroes [sic], except to do them justice.” […] Many African American employees were downgraded and even fired. Employees who were downgraded were transferred [out of sight].

Perhaps most notable, to those wondering what happened after this KKK President finished his second term in 1921, Warren Harding was elected in a landslide and gave a 10 minute speech June 6 at Lincoln University calling on Americans to educate themselves better and never forget the Tulsa Massacre.

Much is said about the problem of the races, but let me tell you that there is nothing that government can do which is akin to educational work. One of the great difficulties with popular government is that citizenship expects at the hands of government that which it should do for itself. No Government can wave a magical wand and take a race from bondage to citizenship in half a century. All that the Government can do is to afford an opportunity for good citizenship.

The colored race, in order to come into its own, must do the great work itself, in preparing for that participation. Nothing will accomplish so much as educational preparation. I commend the valuable work which this institution is doing in that direction. It is a fine contrast to the unhappy and distressing spectacle that we saw the other day out in one of the Western States. God grant that, in the soberness, the fairness and the justice of this country, we shall never have another spectacle like it.

Spectacle, what spectacle? His point about a magical wand and things taking time is notable. Harding was calling out Tulsa’s massacre in a Presidential address, like it was front of mind for all Americans. Somehow this brief moment in time, the magic of that message, was soon lost within the momentum of Wilson’s KKK empire.

Tulsa officials immediately moved to competely erase the massacre from records, going so far as to build a new white supremacist meeting center (“Klavern”) directly on top of the firebombed Black business and homes.

It was a pattern of long-term and coordinated oppression that was being repeated throughout the country.

A horrible “contagion” had been spread across America after 1915, as thousands of KKK domestic terrorism and disinformation cells sprouted under President Wilson.

Each red dot represents a local Klan chapter, known as a Klavern, created between 1915 and 1940. Source: Virginia Commonwealth University

Around the same time as the national KKK “poison” network was busy re-writing American history to forget Tulsa, Harding in October gave a speech in Alabama that clarified his thoughts in ending the long problem of American institutionalized racism.

I would say let the black man vote when he is fit to vote: prohibit the white man voting when he unfit to vote. Especially would I appeal to the self-respect of the colored race. I would inculcate in it the wish to improve itself: distinct race, with a heredity, a set of traditions, an array of aspirations all its own. […] I would accent that a black man can not be a white man, and that he does not need and should not aspire to be as much like a white man as possible in order to accomplish the best that is possible for him. He should seek to be, and he should be encouraged to be, the best possible black man, and not the best possible imitation of a white man.

Prohibit the white man voting? By August 1923 he was dead, with no real explanation.

Mrs. Harding refused all entreaties to allow the doctors to conduct an autopsy and instead ordered that her husband be embalmed shortly after his death. Dr. Wilbur was especially frustrated by this refusal because the press and a bereaved public blamed the president’s doctors for incompetence, malpractice and even plots of poisoning the president.

Remember? Never forget? I dare you to find even one American who remembers President Harding’s first name or the year he took office, let alone his speeches on racism and the Tulsa massacre.

CHP Officer in Hospital After Tesla Runs Him Over

Not very long ago a CA police officer described barely escaping Tesla software developed to not avoid hitting him. The response from Tesla?

Nothing.

Now a CHP officer has been hospitalized and is in unknown condition after Tesla software failed to avoid hitting him.

The collision occurred shortly before 3:30 a.m. just south of the Newhall Pass and the 14 Freeway, according to the CHP. The officer had responded to a disabled vehicle at the scene and was outside of his patrol car when he was hit by a black Tesla. He was transported to a medical center and was undergoing surgery.

Response from Tesla?

Nothing.

This security risk to public safety should not be underestimated. Tesla’s centrally planned and controlled “AI” robots operating on public roads pose a clear and present national threat.

To put it another way, the latest analysis of Tesla CEO tweets on Twitter suggests that violent attacks on law enforcement, inciting widespread disorder to undermine lawfulness, may be his larger plan.

In Britain, the canary has sung. This summer we have witnessed something new and unprecedented. The billionaire owner of a tech platform publicly confronting an elected leader and using his platform to undermine his authority and incite violence. Britain’s 2024 summer riots were Elon Musk’s trial balloon.

How many more police will be seriously hurt or killed like this before all of them are put in danger at the same time by a button pushed by Elon Musk?