How to exploit vulnerability of right-wing populists such as Orbán and Netanyahu

Allegedly the following analysis comes from U.S. embassy officials:

Right-wing populists such as Orbán and Netanyahu thrive on posturing against outside antagonists, using external criticism to bolster their bona fides as strongmen who can stand up to the international community.

[…]

Whenever Western countries would publicly pressure Orbán on his policies, he would refashion that pressure into electoral support, leaving his critics with no good options. Stay silent and he would win; speak up and he would also win.

The proposed solution is to move the messaging from outside public pressure to inside, driving wedges in domestic coalition groups to expose inherently extreme groups as oppositional and destructive to coalitions.

In practice, this means strategically targeting policies where Netanyahu is on the wrong side of Israeli public opinion and forcing him to choose between his hard-right partners and the rest of the country.

Publicly being a supporter of what the rest of the country wants to do can put an extremist in relief; sets them on a political island that makes any attempted power grabs and control issues far more easily judged as coming from the island.

Excellent analysis here:

…most Israelis have no desire to mortgage the security of Israel and its indispensable relationship to the United States in favor of some far-flung hilltop settlers in West Bank regions that few Israelis could locate on a map.

That identification of extremists as being apart from the middle is translated into a simple control language: posturing against inside antagonists means hold accountable those who commit extreme acts such as hate-based attacks.

And that is also known as defending representative law and order, using a basic harm principle, which U.S. embassy officials seem to have presented as the kind of domestic coalition that can unseat right-wing populists.

Nord Stream Pipeline Explosion Explained: Economic Power Defeated by Brains

The latest investigative reporting in The Atlantic reveals how sabotage of huge gas pipes under the sea was likely the work of just a few very smart people in a sailboat.

My favorite part of the story are the social engineering tricks used to track down the exact boat.

…she played stupid. She knew that the boating communities of north Germany were still almost exclusively male, and decided that pretending ignorance would suit their expectations.

A typical conversation went like this: “I want to rent a boat this year, and my friends, they rented a boat called Andromeda last year,” she would begin, explaining that her friends had been “so happy with it.” Then she said she didn’t know any details about the boat, even whether it was a motorboat or a sailboat.

“Well, a sailing boat usually has a mast on it,” one of the charter officials told her.

She quickly found what she was looking for.

It’s a fantastic article with extremely good analysis. However, I will say the author entirely misses a crucial precedent from 2008.

…four CIA spies died when they sailed into a tropical storm on daring mission to plant listening pod disguised as a rock on seabed…

Sailing into Tropical Storm Higos was not smart, which is why we know so much about it.

The Atlantic article gives a lot of focused attention on diving to the Nord Stream Pipeline, much more than use of long lines and remote controls. It’s entirely possible to inexpensively avoid diving while placing explosives 300ft under the surface. The author even describes the construction of the pipeline on the surface in terms of a simple engineering design that could be used to destroy it on the seabed, but never puts the two together.

I’m also reminded of a post I wrote a while ago about the Vietnam War, with modern armies thinking about future conflict in terms of needing brains more than brawn.

When you really get into reading Mrazek, you have to wonder why he didn’t call his 1968 thesis the war of art:

The impotence of the American juggernaut in Vietnam has put this problem under the spotlight of history. The one thing the guerrillas have in abundance is imagination, and this seems to outweigh the imbalance in materiel. It is the author’s contention that creativity is what wins battles–the same faculty that inspires great art.

All this means really that Russia is in deep trouble.

Its dictator has spent decades destroying any ability to think creatively (e.g. undermining threats to dictatorship) in order to drive a sad state of fealty (e.g. coin-operated politicians he controls with assassinations).

On that note, the least creative political party in the world (pro-Putin GOP) appears to be trying to use its economic power to help this dictator and his thoughtless hordes lose their wars more slowly and at an even higher cost.

Every Tesla Recalled Due to High and Rising “Autopilot” Crashes

The 2013 Tesla future-leaning hot-take sales pitches — the promise that rapidly throwing AI into cars magically would solve all dangers of driving — have been declared an official flop. As if we couldn’t already tell by 2016 it would make safety worse, given security analysis of the first Autopilot fatalities.

Source: Consumer Reports

Mounting safety tragedies including loss of lives were apparently all easily avoidable, related to some dumb engineering mistakes that regulators are still chasing down.

Here comes the NHTSA, uncorked from Tesla’s 2016 government corruption schemes. It no longer ignores the fact that millions of dangerous loitering missiles on public roads are prone to sudden fatal failure.

Source: NHTSA

The resulting software update doesn’t get at the underlying design problem, an inability of the Tesla to recognize and avoid crashing into everything.

Notably, vehicle deaths in America have been rising rapidly, attributed to things like the high-risk low-care false overconfidence and constant distraction or just plain negligence of drivers in a Tesla.

The more Tesla on the roads, the more tragic deaths from Tesla. Without fraud there would be no Tesla. Source: Tesladeaths.com
Introduction of the Tesla to public roads in the U.S. started the same time as a massive increase in crashes and fatalities. Coincidence? Source: NYT

Or as researchers wrote earlier this year, data shows Tesla ADAS increased the rate of crashes while promising to be the solution.

Although Level 2 vehicles were claimed to have a 43% lower crash rate than Level 1 vehicles, their improvement was only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. Direct comparison with general public driving was impossible due to unclear crash severity thresholds in the manufacturer’s reports, but analysis showed that controlling for driver age would increase reported crash rates by 11%.

No surprise then, that the years late and very low-quality Tesla CyberTruck is predicted to climb towards the worst vehicle safety record in history, a looming danger especially to the most vulnerable populations on public roads.

How To Build a Car That Kills People: Cybertruck Edition. The Cybertruck represents a lot of what’s wrong with the U.S. transportation system — even as it purports to address those problems.

Slough

Published by John Betjeman in 1937 in his collected works Continual Dew.

Come friendly bombs and fall on Slough!
It isn’t fit for humans now,
There isn’t grass to graze a cow.
Swarm over, Death!

Come, bombs and blow to smithereens
Those air -conditioned, bright canteens,
Tinned fruit, tinned meat, tinned milk, tinned beans,
Tinned minds, tinned breath.

Mess up the mess they call a town-
A house for ninety-seven down
And once a week a half a crown
For twenty years.

And get that man with double chin
Who’ll always cheat and always win,
Who washes his repulsive skin
In women’s tears:

And smash his desk of polished oak
And smash his hands so used to stroke
And stop his boring dirty joke
And make him yell.

But spare the bald young clerks who add
The profits of the stinking cad;
It’s not their fault that they are mad,
They’ve tasted Hell.

It’s not their fault they do not know
The birdsong from the radio,
It’s not their fault they often go
To Maidenhead

And talk of sport and makes of cars
In various bogus-Tudor bars
And daren’t look up and see the stars
But belch instead.

In labour-saving homes, with care
Their wives frizz out peroxide hair
And dry it in synthetic air
And paint their nails.

Come, friendly bombs and fall on Slough
To get it ready for the plough.
The cabbages are coming now;
The earth exhales.