Category Archives: Sailing

Big Tech AI Risks: How Admiral Nelson Exploited Napoleon’s Biggest Weaknesses

One of the remarkable things about Admiral Nelson’s extraordinary successes against Napoleon’s French Navy (arguably the “Big Tech” of the late 1700s) is how a British admiral repeatedly used the same or similar tactics to great effect. He wasn’t so much surprising his enemies as teaching them the same lesson over and over, because they were so overconfident as to be bad at learning.

A key characteristic of military leadership under Napoleon—where the self-proclaimed “emperor” continually eliminated competent officers and replaced them with subordinates demonstrably loyal to him—made the French more vulnerable to Nelson’s hallmark strategic attacks.

For example, in both the Battle of the Nile and Trafalgar, the French (and Spanish) relied on extremely large ships at the center of their line that badly absorbed the brunt of Nelson’s favorite tactic: concentrated and localized fire.

Adding insult to injury, the oversized ships suffered from reduced maneuverability compared to their British attackers. Nelson’s strategy of breaking the line was made even more effective, his targets sitting like ducks.

To put it simply, when Nelson’s 14 ships approached a line of 14 enemy ships of far greater size, he would pierce their line and put 14 of his more agile and experienced craft (firing at a rate of 3 to 2) against only 7 of the enemy. His basic pick-apart and target attack math is trivial to understand, which is why and how his men could press on in battle so independently. In the Nile case, the French foolishly only manned one side of their ships (on the false assumption they were sheltered to lee by the shore) such that Nelson’s two-sided assault became especially effective.

Perhaps most notable was the collapse of coordination and communication within the French fleets. Once their line was broken and subjected to concentrated fire, Nelson maintained a relentless, unified theory of localized assault, while the French struggled to devise any effective counter-strategy other than to fade away. Perhaps ironically, Napoleon used the same tactics on land against the Italians and Austrians yet lacked any competence or translation to sea.

The absolute defeat of French naval forces in both the Nile and Trafalgar was lopsided, swift, and devastating to the soft underbelly of Napoleon.

It’s a lesson that resonates today, where even the largest AI platforms, under attack by aggressive and nimble adversaries—like with Napoleon’s easily routed naval juggernauts—are seemingly setup and operated to invite catastrophic breaches.

Big Tech in a race to create the biggest AI platforms possible and stuff their leadership with adherents to a CEO recalls the fate of the gargantuan L’Orient in 1798, blown apart off the coast of Egypt, sinking France’s entire “unsinkable” campaign fortune.

Perhaps France’s infamously aggressive “move fast, break things” dictator should be referenced today more often as Mr. Napoleon Blownapart? The gargantuan French warship L’Orient explodes at 10PM. Source: National Maritime Museum, Greenwich, London

And lest anyone forget, Nelson’s swift lopsided victories at both the Nile and Trafalgar were supported by an exceptional depth of talent.

Vice-Admiral Cuthbert Collingwood, a name almost nobody remembers yet who earned THREE Naval gold medals, perhaps deserves even more credit for applying the aggressive line-breaking localized fire tactics than Nelson himself at Trafalgar.

Flag officer’s Naval gold medal awarded to Vice-Admiral Cuthbert Collingwood (1750-1810). Source: National Maritime Museum, Greenwich, London

Are you now saying Collingwho? Here are some fun history facts about the underappreciated “Salt Junk and Sixpenny” (cheap food and booze) Collingwood who rose out of poverty to become one of the most decorated Admirals in history: Denied his first gold medal on a technicality, he protested and was awarded it retroactively after earning his second. Though excluded from a role in the Nile rout, he led the charge at Trafalgar and is credited with preserving the entire British fleet during both the battle and a subsequent horrific storm. Allegedly, even after suffering the loss of their fleet, the Spanish respected his executive actions so much that his leadership helped them overthrow the French. While Nelson inspired his fleet with strategic brilliance and daring tactics, Collingwood was a hard-core system administrator who excelled in operations—Nelson wisely deployed his vice-admiral as a man capable of fighting harder and better than any fleet three times his size.

Collingwood was a tough, resourceful individual who rose from humble, rough conditions to achieve the highest awards and greatness despite his modest background. He was much more modest than an attention-seeking Nelson, preferring to focus on smooth operations and combat discipline rather than seeking fame or fortunes. He was even criticized for not being more aggressive about hunting foreign treasure and bounty in combat. His steady, reliable command did not seek the spotlight given he felt success was best measured as victory in combat—hence why his amazing historic contributions, though significant, are often unknown.

So who will historians look back upon and discuss as the Collingwood of our day, the quiet hero who routed the Napoleon(s) of Big Tech AI?

“Rear-Admiral Cuthbert Collingwood, 1748-1810, 1st Baron Collingwood” adorned with medals, posing on the poop deck. Source: National Maritime Museum, Greenwich, London

Germany Provides Ukraine 2,667 Crypto Phones

Hot off the press is a Federal Government news release itemizing “arms and military equipment Germany is sending to Ukraine“.

This list provides an overview of military assistance provided by the Federal Republic of Germany to Ukraine. This military assistance is delivered in two different ways: on the one hand there are the Federal Government funds for security capacity building, which are used to finance deliveries of military equipment and other material from industry. On the other hand, there are deliveries from Federal Armed Forces stocks. In total, the Federal Republic of Germany has so far provided or committed for future years military assistance with a value of approximately 28 billion euro.

Of course 84 outboard motors are something I’d love to discuss, but the more notable items for this blog are the nearly 3,000 Crypto phones and… all those drones.

  • 318 reconnaissance drones VECTOR with spare parts* (before: 288)
  • 269 reconnaissance drones RQ-35 HEIDRUN* (before: 249)
  • 70 unmanned surface vessels* (before: 50)
  • 19 reconnaissance drones SONGBIRD* (before: 7)
1948 Selva Outboard Manufacturing

Why Did the Bayesian Sink? Video of Palermo Storm That Hit the Lynch Superyacht

That’s a lot of wind on the ground.

Still, such a large ocean-going “super” yacht sinking so abruptly has been raising many questions about what went wrong.

A fisherman described seeing the yacht sinking “with my own eyes”. Speaking to the newspaper Giornale di Sicilia, the witness said he was at home when the tornado hit. “Then I saw the boat, it had only one mast, it was very big,” he said. Shortly afterwards he went down to the Santa Nicolicchia bay in Porticello to get a better look at what was happening. He added: “The boat was still floating, then all of a sudden it disappeared. I saw it sinking with my own eyes.”

One notable fact is the yacht boasted having the 2nd tallest aluminum mast in the world. It was allegedly 75m, a substantial surface area even when bare.

Photo taken the evening before it sank. Source: Twitter

The boom also appears to be absurdly large, likely a roller-furl system for the huge main. Such a mast and boom would have presented a huge pressure area for a dangerous storm.

Just for quick reference, vesselfinder says the draught is a shallow 3.8m even underway!

(A superyacht site claims the full draught can reach 9.73m). If that 3.8m is true draught, the yacht was built with a ratio of over 75m above versus less than 4m below the waterline when anchored.

You can do the math for a hurricane force hitting that stick sideways.

Actually, I’m far too curious to leave it at that… so here’s a quick estimate.

Multiplying the yacht’s displacement (473,000kg) by Earth’s gravitational force (9.81m/s²) and the yacht’s righting arm (2.75m based on its 11m beam), its righting moment would be approximately 12,750,000 Newton-meters (Nm). The dangerous heeling moment would be where a 75m mast is hit with 170,000 Newtons of wind force (F x 75 = 12,750,000).

To calculate a dangerous wind speed (V²), we use air density (1.225kg/m3), mast drag coefficient (1.2), mast surface area (200m²), and that wind force. The equation looks like this:

170,000 = 0.5 x 1.225 x 1.2 x 200 x V²

Solving for V, we find that a dangerous wind speed is 34 m/s.

This means a sideways wind at around 80 mph could be strong enough to tip the yacht over far enough to take on water in a sudden instant, even with only the mast exposed. The crew allegedly said there was something like a 20 degree heel initially (already quite a lot), which had them running about trying to secure things, and then a sudden sinking.

The video above, along with reports of waterspouts/downbursts/tornadoes suddenly appearing in the area, suggests a sufficient wind force was present. Here’s just one of many examples recorded during the day:

Presuming the abrupt storm wind shifted to full abeam (because fore or aft wouldn’t be a risk), the force hitting bare mast and boom from the side while anchored, she may have been pressed hard onto her starboard ear and pinned under water by the anchor. This is a familiar story, unfortunately, for huge ships lost at sea.

…the Concordia had proven herself a very able sea-boat able to stand up to hurricane-force winds,” he says. “But 40-plus knots of wind directed downward after the vessel had heeled to deck-edge immersion angle is another story.

Looking at the weather history, we see some of this evidence. A predominant westerly breeze of 10-15 after midnight suddenly jumps 90 degrees from the north and over 40mph at 3:50AM.

Wind Speed Palermo. Source: WunderGround 2024-08-19

That’s a reading near the ground, which is important context. The higher and more exposed, the windier and gustier in some storms (downburts tend to concentrate force at lower levels). If the storm had unlimited fetch to build strength before impact, a 40mph ground reading could have been upwards of 60mph above 50m.

Who could have seen it coming? Who could have predicted this tragic design configuration failure (anchored with reduced draught in a storm blowing sideways)? Bayes…

Bayesian theory for risk prediction is how the owner made his billions, thus renaming his $30M superyacht Bayesian before the most ironic sinking in history.

A yacht like the Bayesian is designed to heel when underway. Being knocked over by winds over 40mph at 4am on anchor means that it also might have had doors and hatches open, allowing water to rush in and push her down. But the speed of sinking suggests more like a total knock-down. When the mast hits water, it’s plausible half the hull is under immense pressure of doors or windows being smashed open by heavy flooding.

The Kiwi skipper of a superyacht that sank off Sicily after being hit by a tornado has told Italian media: “We didn’t see it coming.”

All that being said, this tragedy of a half dozen lives gets a lot more attention than the hundreds being killed by Tesla

Tesla Cybertruck “Totaled” After It Touches Water

At this rate we’ll be on Mars by 2020.

Lies, lies and more lies. Without fraud there would be no Tesla. The truck the CEO loudly proclaimed so waterproof it will float like a boat also has been classified a wreck after its soft underbelly touched water.

…totaled Cybertruck up for auction actually looks intact and only has 26 miles on the odometer.

The problem with this Cybertruck is apparently that it [barely touched water].

IAA released this picture of the “flood line”, which is surprisingly still underneath the cabin.

Reality bites this CEO over and over again as his exaggerated forward leaning claims are proven lies. Why is a guy flogging stock scams not in jail?

Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes and even seas that aren’t too choppy.

It not only can’t serve as a boat,
it can’t serve as a truck.

Tokyo

Cybertrucked. Folly:
Aquaphobic, soulless ride.
Buyer wisdom void.

Brooklyn

Fscking Cybertrucker,
what a damn joke
Brakes just shit,
drop of water makes it choke.
Buying Musk lies,
shows yo’ brain be broke!

London

Forsooth, they part with coin for naught but air,
A chariot that fails when skies do weep.
O empty heads that reason cannot spare,
Into this trap of deadly vanity they leap.

Behold! A chariot of fool’s gold doth gleam,
Its form a jest, its function but a sham.
The rain, its foe; its brakes, a fevered dream;
Its makers, frauds who care not for bedlam.

O wretched craft of steel and broken vows,
Thy frame a monument to hubris vast.
Thy wheels spin lies, thy hood false hope endows,
While coin and sense are flushed into the past.

What knave would part with wealth for such deceit?
A vehicle of folly, born of guile.
Its promises are dust beneath our feet,
Its engineering naught but refuse vile.

Thus Cybertruck, a fraud in metal clad,
Proves buyer and maker equally mad.

Topeka

Can’t get a truck wet,
Even its brakes don’t work?
Empty head Tesla boss is big
Mouth needin’ a cork!

Cybertruck lies rusting in the rain,
Cybertruck lies rusting in the rain,
Cybertruck lies rusting in the rain,
Its brakes are shot to hell!

Glory, glory, what a swindle,
Glory, glory, what a swindle,
Glory, glory, what a swindle,
The fools who payed into a shell!