Category Archives: History

Risks of (Wind) Power Overproduction

I should have called this post the risks of German power, but alas…here is an interesting look at the risks from harnessing the unlimited yet variable input of wind:

In 2006, when wind farms were few and far between, coal, gas and nuclear power plants produced just the amount of energy needed in eastern Germany at the time, but also created large amounts of nuclear waste and carbon dioxide emissions. The system was relatively stable. One average, engineers took action to stabilize the eastern German grid roughly 80 times a year.

Today, as the amount of electricity generated by the region’s 8,000 wind turbines rises and falls by the hour, engineers have to intervene every second day to maintain network stability.

Germans are now pushing so much power from wind through their system that it is in danger of overload. One new and different thing about wind (like solar) is that its variable rate of input means storage is important and a sensible way to convert it to a constant output. With petroleum it is stored and then converted into output, using storage to manage flow rates, but unfortunately a method of storing wind energy has not been engineered yet.

The article points out that petroleum power plants are instead supposed to be shutdown and give priority to wind during surges. That, of course, doesn’t happen because it puts the grid at a higher risk of variability and control issues (operational cost?) so they instead try to export their overproduction, which puts the grid at a higher risk of overload.

Although large high-energy long-life batteries are still considered so toxic that only the military is allowed to use them…what eastern Germany could do is create the equivalent of barrels of wind energy for consumers. That would give them the option to store or export energy just like with petroleum. Maybe it could take the form of hundreds of thousands stored energy blocks (batteries) hot-swappable into electric transportation, especially bikes.

Imagine riding across town and then pulling in to a grid/battery station and swapping out for a fresh charge. Storage problem solved, excess power problem solved, a more viable electric transportation market (longer range, faster recharge), with exports options still open and to an even wider market.

Enertia
Storing power has never before been so much fun.

Maybe it’s just me, but the Deutsche Welle graphic of German power seems a little historically insensitive:

Eastern German Power
“Aggh! Ze plan ist to go hier und hier und…”

US Losing African Support Over Libya

It was supposed to be an internationally sanctioned operation to achieve a UN Resolution and protect civilians. Instead several states are openly criticizing the NATO forces for putting Libyan civilians at greater risk or even killing them.

The President of Uganda has published his opinion in the paper and points out many interesting facts about Libya as well as inconsistencies in American foreign policy.

In the nine-page statement, the President accused the West of hastily imposing a ‘no-fly zone’ on Libya yet it has dragged its feet on the Africa Union request for the same over Somalia.

“We have been appealing to the UN to impose a no-fly zone over Somalia so as to impede the free movement of terrorists, linked to Al-Qaeda that killed Americans on September 11, killed Ugandans last July and have caused so much damage to the Somalis, without success. Why?” the President asked.

The UN imposed a ‘no-fly zone’ on Libya last Thursday.

Museveni also accused the West of looking on as a Libya-like crisis evolves in the Great state of Bahrain.

The same could perhaps be asked of the Ivory Coast. Why has the UN not imposed the same conditions as in Libya?

A few things that stand out to me, which President Museveni does not mention.

One, Libya is nestled between the revolutions of Egypt and Tunisia. I can’t say exactly how that factors into American logic for intervention but it should not be underestimated. It’s easy for Museveni to say one state has peaceful demonstrations while another has violent insurrectionists because he is ignoring the flow of arms and support going across state borders from demonstrators to insurrectionists. The true difference may be best judged in the dictatorship’s response relative to a whole region of revolution.

Two, enforcement of a no-fly zone (with minimum air casualties) means anti-aircraft defenses have to be neutralized. That is why so many missiles were fired in the initial phase. There is no surprise to this tactic. The civilian casualties are tragic but Museveni does not propose in his statement an alternative method to disabling the threats to civilians and the aircraft sent to impose a no-fly zone.

Three, while I can understand why China, Russia, India, Arab nations, African nations…all believe that America aims to remove Gaddafi from power, this is their moment to step up. They could now find a way to take the reigns of the operation to ensure it remains focused on minimizing civilian casualties. Their decision to pull back and criticize leaves the US in a position of greater authority. Has the US made it impossible for the other countries to work with the NATO forces? It seems that leaders of the other nations are unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of a tough situation with few easy answers.

Museveni urged Gadaffi to sit at a round table with the opposition, adding that since there have never been elections in Libya, “dialogue is the correct way forward.”

That is not a bad suggestion. It could be that Museveni is using a public critique of the US as a “good cop” routine; perhaps he knows that the UN resolution and NATO attacks could inspire Gadaffi to sit at the table, but the Libyan dictator will not appear without a sense of balance (less overt support for America) in the AU.

I highly recommend reading the full statement. It has some parts that are just ridiculous:

Black people are always polite.

They, normally, do not want to offend other people. This is called obufura in Runyankore, mwolo in Luo – handling, especially strangers, with care and respect. It seems some of the non-African cultures do not have obufura. You can witness a person talking to a mature person as if he/she is talking to a kindergarten child. “You should do this; you should do that; etc.” We tried to politely point out to Col. Gaddafi that this was difficult in the short and medium term.

I almost quit after reading that nonsense, but it also has some interesting insights into the Ugandan perspective on international relations, such as this:

Idi Amin came to power with the support of Britain and Israel because they thought he was uneducated enough to be used by them.

Amin, however, turned against his sponsors when they refused to sell him guns to fight Tanzania. Unfortunately, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, without getting enough information about Uganda, jumped in to support Idi Amin. This was because Amin was a ‘Moslem’ and Uganda was a ‘Moslem country’ where Moslems were being ‘oppressed’ by Christians.

Amin killed a lot of people extra-judiciary and Gaddafi was identified with these mistakes. In 1972 and 1979, Gaddafi sent Libyan troops to defend Idi Amin when we attacked him. I remember a Libyan Tupolev 22 bomber trying to bomb us in Mbarara in 1979.

And this:

Before Gaddafi came to power in 1969, a barrel of oil was 40 American cents. He launched a campaign to withhold Arab oil unless the West paid more for it. I think the price went up to US$ 20 per barrel. When the Arab-Israel war of 1973 broke out, the barrel of oil went to US$ 40.

And last, but not least, this:

The AU mission could not get to Libya because the Western countries started bombing Libya the day before they were supposed to arrive. However, the mission will continue. My opinion is that, in addition, to what the AU mission is doing, it may be important to call an extra-ordinary Summit of the AU in Addis Ababa to discuss this grave situation.

I would blame that on the French, not the US, but that could just be me. I suspect France was one of the most eager to intervene and are likely to have had special forces there from Djibouti long before the bombs started to drop.

The Risk of Radiation Dosage, Illustrated

xkcd has a dry wit and usually a good sense of how to fit humor with technology. The radiation dose chart on the site is a great idea but it lacks cartooning and jokes. Is that because of sensitivity, fear and feelings associated with radiation exposure?

He points out, for example, that a CRT over one year will expose you to more radiation than an x-ray of your arm. Maybe I should put that the other way around. It’s kind of funny.

The giant green box area on the right side of his chart is the maximum annual dose allowed a radiation worker, while the itty bitty green box to the left of it is the maximum external dose from Three Mile Island. Wow, assuming his boxes are accurate, good illustration on risk.

xkcd Radiation Dose Chart

The BBC offers a more dramatic version. They list the levels in numeric format, but the chart gives a very “red” heavy impression of exposure. I noted in their chart that the annual dose level allowed a radiation worker has been reduced by more than half. This suggests that these charts are not an accurate representation of known risk — they are an estimation still subject to change.

Radiation Dose Level Risk

Of course photos of radiation victims probably have the most profound effect on our risk thermostat, as they tend to give us a sense of accurate representation (7 million affected by Chernobyl fallout, half of them children instead of just the 50 officially recorded).

A Brief History of the Bohemian

The BBC, in an investigation called “What is bohemian?”, quotes Puccini’s character Rodolfo in La Boheme

I am a poet!

What’s my employment? Writing.

Is that a living? Hardly.

I’ve wit though wealth be wanting,

Ladies of rank and fashion

All inspire me with passion;

In dreams and fond illusions,

Or castles in the air,

Richer is none on earth than I.

Those who embrace the identity of the bohemian may in fact be capturing the essence of “outsider”, which has the most profound effect on fashion and fad, or other industries that favor constant change:

“Everyone has a view of what the bohemian is,” says [writer Virginia] Nicholson. “The bohemian is an outsider, defines themselves as an outsider and is defined by the world as an outsider… A lot of people regard them as subversive, elitist and possibly just a little bit immature.”

In other words, they are less likely to follow tradition and may express an ability or a want to live beyond the confines of localized control. That could be seen as immature if a viewer associates the ability to easily change and adapt around standards to a lack of maturity. The OED is also quoted. It emphasizes a male identity and uses the terms “irregular” and “vagabond” instead of “immature”, which reveal that the terms to emphasize an outsider may be dated.

The Oxford English Dictionary’s definition mentions someone “especially an artist, literary man, or actor, who leads a free, vagabond, or irregular life, not being particular as to the society he frequents, and despising conventionalities generally”.