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History, Security

Loose Lips Sink Qubits: Forget Mars, Quantum Compute is a Race to Berlin and Beijing

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A conversation in Hamburg about delayed trains just exposed who’s ahead in the most significant technology race since the Space Age

“Training” the Public

Dr. Robert Axmann in Hamburg just did something unusual for a government official involved in quantum: he leaked truth.

As head of Germany’s DLR Quantum Computing Initiative, Axmann could have stuck to the standard script about reducing train delays and optimizing airport operations.

Nope. Instead, he said something far more revealing:

“…quantum computers are not yet powerful enough for commercial applications,” said Axmann. But that may be possible next year. […] The first milestones, i.e., demonstrators have already been achieved. […] “The QCMobility project focuses on optimising air, rail and road transport, as well as the maritime environment and intermodal transport,” said Axmann.

Transit infrastructure logic puzzles? As in the 1950s birth of artificial intelligence? As in the birth of modern hacking?

As in… trains?

Germany invests billions into Deutsche Bahn running on time based on classical computers. Chinese trains move half a billion people during Chunyun using ordinary algorithms. Japan’s rail is famously punctual without a single qubit. So isn’t it natural that the countries ahead in public network logistics would become the centerpiece of a multi-billion dollar quantum compute power race?

Yes, but maybe… none of the transit-focused quantum was really ever about trains. Just like the moon race was always really about highly accurate intercontinental missile flight.

These Numbers Don’t Compute (And That’s The Point)

Let’s look at what quantum computing has actually achieved in public transit optimization news:

UK “Breakthrough”:

UK’s Q-CTRL and Network Rail managed to optimize 26 trains over 18 minutes at London Bridge station using 103 qubits. Even this tepid tea is being called “record-breaking” work that could deliver quantum advantage “as early as 2028.”

Real-World Scale:

Let’s get some perspective. About a decade ago I was working with storage performance issues for China’s New Year (Chunyun) travel rush and the scale was staggering then. The 2025 Chunyun is now expected to handle more than half a billion rail trips over 40 days, with daily averages of 12.75 million passengers.

Peak days for the Chinese compute platforms means 14,100 train services operating simultaneously across thousands of stations. Classical algorithms already handle the Chunyun, the world’s largest annual human migration. So what’s quantum got to do?

Moving from solving for 26 trains to 14,000 trains isn’t a scaling problem. It’s a seven orders of magnitude problem.

Researchers freely admit they’re starting on “simplified demonstration problems,” as expected. However, for some reverse perspective, a recent Baltimore study (ignoring America lacking any modern trains) scheduled just 12 trains on D-Wave’s quantum system, and only 2 trains on IonQ’s hardware. Two trains! America, LOL.

It’s not just math to overcome, either. Deutsche Bahn’s digital chief, being stereotypically German, told the media to calm down, since he saw practical large-scale quantum applications for his rail “at least a decade away”. Sure, because for him that’s probably sooner than he expects his application for a new desk chair to be approved.

Now, instead apply a national security lens when you think about what’s really happening today versus a decade away.

Sputnik Wowed the World

Public transit logistics optimization is the most politically palatable justification for winning the sovereign quantum capability race.

There are some very real stakes, which depend on researchers trying to secure public funding:

  • “We need €500 million to break everyone’s encryption and absolutely wreck our own Internet and every industry we have including critical infrastructure”
  • “This is for military supremacy in attack logistics”
  • “We’re building cryptographic weapons but can’t tell you why”

Not going to fly, especially in Germany. Now compare that with:

  • “€500 million reduces train delays by A and improves national human throughout by B”
  • “This will reduce emissions by C, preventing D deaths”
  • “Airport scheduling will improve by E, reducing fuel and ATC staff dependencies”

Same technology.

Radically different political viability and metrics.

The US Department of Transportation held a quantum workshop where officials stated that quantum computing “may be more important to transportation than artificial intelligence.”

Yeah, no kidding.

The UK strategy includes deploying quantum sensors across critical infrastructure—transport, telecoms, energy, defense—by 2030.

Germany is building five quantum computers in Hamburg, making them available to “DLR research teams and industrial partners across Germany.”

The applications they’re really developing? The same algorithms that optimize train schedules have many military lifts:

  • Coordinate real-time deployment and attack logistics
  • Optimize supply chain warfare
  • Simulate molecular structures for materials science
  • Crack encryption
  • Model climate systems
  • Accelerate drug discovery

Transportation is both an excellent and historic focus as well as (again) the perfect cover story. Everyone understands a rocket to the moon. Almost no one understands mutually assured destruction by the same rockets, let alone understands post-quantum cryptography or quantum chemistry simulations.

Trainless America Falling Behind

While TED talks in a country devoid of trains is reduced to pontificating about theoretical promise of quantum computing, here’s what’s actually happening in advanced nations:

China’s Origin Wukong quantum computer:

  • Went operational January 6, 2024
  • Has completed 380,000+ quantum computing tasks
  • Served 26+ million users from 139 countries
  • Secured the first commercial quantum computing export order
  • Production line now builds 8 quantum computers simultaneously

Compare that to the West’s achievement: successfully scheduling 26 trains for 18 minutes in a controlled demonstration.

China has also deployed the CN-QCN quantum communication network spanning 10,000+ kilometers, incorporating 145 fiber backbone nodes and 20 metropolitan networks covering 17 provinces and 80 cities. It’s not a research project—it’s operational infrastructure.

The most telling statistic?

American researchers are among the heaviest users of China’s Origin Wukong quantum computer. We’re literally using their quantum infrastructure while we dance around a TED stage to avoid actual hard work and admitting the obvious.

The EU and China Race

Hamburg is being built as a quantum ecosystem for Germany. Five quantum computers. Indigenous production methods. Talent pipeline development. “Simplified demonstration problems” that will scale over time.

Germany lost funding (Axmann noted their budget was cut from €740 million to €540 million), yet they’re still pushing forward. Why? Because military planners understand what’s at stake.

China’s quantum computing firms increased from 93 to 153 between 2023 and 2024—a 40% jump in one year. Their public investment in quantum is estimated at over $15 billion, roughly triple U.S. spending and double the EU’s.

The quantum computing market in transportation and logistics is projected to grow from $46.6 million in 2025 to $194.6 million by 2032. But the market is not what this is about. The real prize is technological sovereignty, and therefore power in the defining computing and political paradigm of the 21st century.

Leadership in quantum computing is becoming the definitive mark for national prestige, economic competitiveness, and avoiding strategic dependency on foreign power.

An Honest Assessment

I’ve been in countless executive meetings across every industry in America for the past two years, discussing the quantum threats. The Department of Homeland Security had me evaluate and report a strategic quantum-safe target.

Can quantum computers solve railway scheduling better than classical systems? Eventually, of course. Do they need to now? Who’s asking? It’s like asking can a repeating rifle solve hunting needs in 1860.

As I said at the start, China handles the world’s largest human migration annually with classical computing. Japan’s trains run with legendary precision using traditional algorithms. The optimization problems are being solved as best they can by yesterday’s technology. Their old flint-lock rifles are bringing home food just fine.

But that’s not what makes Hamburg’s quantum initiative important:

  • Nations are building quantum capability under the political cover of civilian applications
  • Transportation provides relatable, fundable use cases while teams develop general-purpose quantum systems
  • The algorithms developed for “train optimization” transfer directly to military, cryptographic, and industrial applications
  • Whoever builds operational quantum infrastructure first gains a potentially insurmountable advantage

Trains probably still will run delays in 2035, quantum computers or not. But Germany—and every other serious power as measured by their trains—will have developed the quantum capability that matters for doing everything else.

When Dr. Axmann talks about trains he is not predicting the future, he’s revealing who is winning in the present.

China isn’t talking about quantum trains—they’re running 380,000+ quantum computing tasks. They’re not writing papers about potential applications—they’re exporting quantum computing capability. They’re not building prototypes—they’re scaling production to eight quantum computers at once.

The West, thanks to open immigration policies and publication platforms, had an early advantage on quantum computing research. More published papers, better theoretical breakthroughs, and Nobel prizes.

China however has quantum computers doing actual work, integrated into national infrastructure, serving millions of users globally. The question now what will define building the quantum infrastructure that will define international power in the next century?

Germans leaked the answer. We probably should listen. Every quantum “transportation optimization” initiative you see announced is a dual-use technology play masquerading as a public service project.

The quantum race no longer is happening in the future. It’s no longer about who publishes the best papers or announces impressive academic qubit counts.

The train has left the station, with leaders building operational systems right now. Who has their workforce ready?. Who has their supply chains ready?. Who’s integrating quantum into immediate national infrastructure planning?

By that measure, the scoreboard isn’t even close. Any Western official talking about quantum solving “trains” knows this: optimizing demonstration problems with two dozen rail lines while China is on their fifth generation of production quantum systems.

Dr. Axmann gave us the usual conservative roadmap:

I expect to see the first practical benefits in five years.

China’s Origin Wukong hit 380,000 completed tasks in less than two years. That’s a lot of cracking.

Do the math and, more importantly, know your arms race history.

Welcome to Sputnik 2.0.

Security

Israel Kills Dozens in Ceasefire Enforcement

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It’s hard to ignore blatant double-speak being normalized by Israel.

Strikes began in southern Gaza after the Israeli military said “terrorists fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire” toward its troops in Rafah, killing two soldiers.

Hamas said it was “unaware” of any clashes in the area under Israeli control.

By evening, Israel said it had hit Hamas targets across Gaza, with hospital sources saying 44 people were killed.

I’m reminded how Egypt achieved total surprise in 1973 when the Israelis, and the Americans for that matter, were too caught up believing their own lies.

Or perhaps more to the point, Netanyau’s rise to power has been implicated in the assassination of Rabin, to stop anyone from making peace with Palestinians. Netanyahu stirred extremist violent political groups by decrying Oslo peace accords with vitriolic hate.

To this day, the killing of Yitzhak Rabin by a man determined to halt the Middle East peace process remains that rare thing: an act of political violence that wholly achieved its aim. Judged by the goal it set itself, it is surely the most successful assassination in history.

A cease-fire deal where Israelis are opening fire to enforce it, sounds on brand for Netanyau… if not authoritarians before him like Stalin.

Food, History, Security

Why Peter Thiel Can’t Tell the Truth as Churchill Rolls in His Grave

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The other night I lay awake staring at the stars, contemplating Peter Thiel being catastrophically wrong about history. He was selling a giant bag of fraud, as people literally pay to hear his backwards history in talks, but why… why lie about Churchill?

His framing was so completely backwards, so obviously wrong, it had to be Thiel practicing intentional disinformation.

It got me thinking about the complexity of the 1943 Bengal famine, since Churchill is sometimes accused of unilaterally mishandling it, meaning he personally gets blamed for 3 million deaths.

It’s unfair to blame him entirely, but if someone wants to criticize Churchill for errors, Bengal is the most obvious avenue because it’s complicated, morally ambiguous, and shows how even “good” leaders can be complicit in systemic catastrophe.

Instead, Thiel went with a well known Stalinist statement and attributed it to Churchill, which either shows profound ignorance or… something else.

It would be like hearing that Thiel give an exclusive paid speech about Apple’s first computer being the Radio Shack TRS-80, as if such history errors are worth price of admission.

Gibberish. And probably intentional.

It’s also unfortunate, because the 1943 Bengal catastrophe is actually very relevant today, with direct parallels to the dangerous economics of Big Tech billionaires.

In short, bureaucratic rationality (efficiency metrics, cost control) and market-driven predation (hoarding, speculation) created a perfect storm in history. Churchill was hugely implicated in millions being killed not from an absolute supply shortage, but from what the economist Amartya Sen called an “entitlement failure” system, where people were gated to prevent access to food that exists.

Bengal is a case study of systems optimized for everything except human welfare, and how “rational” decision-making at every level can produce catastrophic outcomes. A decade ago I said this about Big Data platforms; these days it clearly applies to the AI industry, and very much applies to Thiel.

There were two fundamental, interrelated pathologies underlying the catastrophe of Bengal:

  1. Rent Seeking — Artificial Scarcity for Power and Profit: The Famine Inquiry Commission concluded that “a large part of the community lived in plenty while others starved” and noted that “corruption was widespread throughout the province and in many classes of society.” Gandhi has even been implicated in a calculated failure to act, using famine to undermine his political opponents. Enormous profits were made through speculation, war profiteering, hoarding, and corruption by the calculation that “profits for some meant death for others.” Food was deliberately stockpiled in village stores of wealthy landlords and tradesmen who were waiting for inflation to cause price increases. The beneficiaries were big farmers, merchants, and rice mill owners, whose incomes soared while the poor starved. Bengal’s Minister of Civil Supplies gave the import monopoly to his friend and political ally who had a large grain trading business. This was highly profitable when selling at black-market prices, as long as shortages continued. The extremely inelastic demand for food meant traders would lose money if they increased imports.
  2. Efficiency as Status/Virtue: After Temple’s “excessive” spending and immediate response had saved lives in 1873-74, he was criticized rather than celebrated. The subsequent British relief efforts implemented stricter standards with the justification that “excessive pay might promote dependency.” Lord Lytton had opposed famine relief reforms in the belief they would stimulate “shirking by Indian workers,” substantively ordering “there is to be no interference of any kind on the part of Government with the object of reducing the price of food” and instructing district officers to “discourage relief works in every possible way.”

The Toxic Synergy

What makes this particularly devastating is how these two pathologies reinforced each other in a vicious cycle.

Efficiency doctrine provided moral cover for profiteering. When officials invoked “market discipline” and “non-interference,” they justified refusing to disrupt the hoarding and speculation that was killing people. War Cabinet reports noted the Government of India was “unduly tender with speculators and hoarders”—the reluctance to “waste” resources on aggressive intervention meant the corrupt could operate with impunity. Meanwhile, the massive profits from artificial scarcity validated the efficiency ideology: markets were “working,” just not for human welfare.

Both prioritized abstract principles over human lives. Whether it was market efficiency, fiscal responsibility, or profit margins, the actual suffering and death became normalized for these systemic imperatives.

And that sounds to me a LOT like Palantir.

It also sounds like the SRE who forgets the R stands for reliability, and keeps causing outages by forcing “efficiency” in cloud systems by generating artificial scarcity.

Just as 3 million Bengalis died while food existed but was made inaccessible by system operators, Big Tech is building systems where resources, opportunities, and even basic rights may exist in aggregate while systematically withheld through centralized and optimized distribution failures.

The Bengal famine shows that you don’t need malicious intent, only the right combination of profit motive, efficiency ideology, institutional inertia, and a willful blindness to complexity.

That last one is a particular worry in tech these days. The privileged techbro “move fast and break things” ethos—prioritizing velocity over human cost—echoes the kind of oppressive bureaucratic rationality metrics that enabled the worst atrocities of the 20th century.

Thiel preaching lies about history while building systems that replicate its worst pathologies isn’t just ironic, it’s structurally necessary for him to avoid accountability. Accurate historical analysis indicts his entire life’s work.

  • Concentration of compute resources creating artificial scarcity
  • “Alignment” framed as efficiency problem rather than power question
  • Regulatory capture via lobbying and government contracts
  • Suffering externalized and rendered invisible by optimization metrics
  • Rhetoric of “inevitability” and “market forces” preventing intervention

Palantir literally is in the business of sophisticated gating—determining who gets surveilled, who gets flagged, who gets deported, who gets targeted. The “food” (resources, freedom, safety) exists, but access is algorithmically controlled for very narrowly controlled profit.

That’s the Bengal famine system all over again, which Churchill criticized and opposed, yet ultimately still gets blame for because he was prime minister.

Where Bengal’s gatekeepers were corrupt officials and grain merchants (constraining options even for Churchill at the height of his power), today’s are engineers optimizing “engagement” and “efficiency” metrics that just happen to concentrate power and profit into Thiel’s pockets while externalizing harm.

Thiel’s confusion of Churchill and Stalin therefore is very revealing in proper context. Stalin intentionally engineered a famine (Holodomor). Churchill was complicit in systemic failure with multiple actors.

Thiel artificially conflates these two in a way that seems extremely self serving, beyond just historical malpractice:

  • Obscures how systemic optimization can kill without individual malice
  • Avoids the uncomfortable middle ground where “rational actors” produce catastrophe
  • Prevents examination of how market fundamentalism enables mass harm

Because that’s his business model.

Security

Tesla Crash Fire Uniqueness Described by Australian News

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The unique Tesla risk of fire has been described in detail by Australian emergency responders.

Source: Fire and Rescue NSW

A Tesla driver suffered serious burns following an crash that triggered a “thermal runaway” battery fire on Friday.

Emergency services shut down the Pacific Highway near Rainbow Flat at about 2.30pm on Friday afternoon after a Tesla Model Y crashed south of Taree.

An Ambulance Service of NSW spokeswoman confirmed that paramedics treated a man in his 40s for burns to his face, hands and arms before taking him to Manning Base Hospital at Taree.

The story reads so far that this man was primarily, if not only, treated for fire. Did the doors fail, trapping him in fire coming into the cabin (e.g. firewall design failure)?

No other brands were cited by firefighters in their description of severe thermal runaway risks, the kind that put this Tesla owner in critical condition.