Category Archives: Security

America and Pakistan’s ISI

Der Spiegel interviewed terror expert and Obama advisor Bruce Riedel about the evolving focus on Pakistan.

SPIEGEL: Currently, there are many reports about how closely the Pakistani secret service ISI is intertwined with terror groups. Does the ISI actually supply the Taliban with ammunition, trucks and recruits?

Riedel: These are serious issues. We are raising them with the Pakistanis. The head of the ISI was here in February. We have put these issues on the table and we expect to see a serious response. In our engagement with Pakistan, I think our watchword must be an old one: trust but verify.

SPIEGEL: What does the ISI expect to gain from their influence on these groups?

Riedel: Over the course of the last three decades, the ISI used these relations to have leverage against India and influence in Afghanistan. More and more Pakistanis now recognize that they have created a Frankenstein that threatens the Pakistani state itself. We now need to help them bring this monster under control.

SPIEGEL: The United States also played a role in its creation, back in the eighties when the Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, then the number two at the CIA, was involved.

Riedel: Yes but we cannot go back and change history. We have to live with the reality we face today.

I like the Frankenstein reference. Nice sidestep to the historical connection, but the past is obviously still relevant and probably a real influence on Gates’ strategy for the Pentagon.

Missouri Renounces MIAC Report

A letter in Missouri State from February 20th has stoked a lot of attention by attempting to profile domestic militia and terrorist members, and doing a really poor job of it. Chuck Baldwin for example found it offensive:

On March 23, DPS Director John Britt sent an apology letter to Ron Paul, Bob Barr, and me stating, “I have ordered that the offending report be edited so as to excise all reference to Ron Paul, Bob Barr or Chuck Baldwin and to any third-party political organizations.”

The report was apparently full of errors, omissions, grammar and spelling errors. That should say a lot, but instead of being dismissed as sloppy work and bad governance, it had fed right into conspiracy theorists hands. It has been taken very seriously and a retraction demanded.

Then, on Wednesday, March 25, the head of the Missouri State Highway Patrol, Col. James F. Keathley, ordered the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC) to “permanently cease distribution” of this abysmal report. Keathley said that neither he nor Britt had read the report before it was distributed.

The bottom line here is that bad analysis in intelligence data can do more harm than good for the people trying to carry out their enforcement duties. State troopers are being killed by militia members so it seems entirely reasonable for the MIAC to try and prepare them better after researching the data. Unfortunately in this case they just fueled more conspiracy and anti-enforcement rhetoric. Instead they could have spent time trying to understand and document whether groups in question have a way to distinguish themselves from militias and extremists. This is true of the right and left alike, as well as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A Missouri paper has some interesting quotes and details on this particular case:

The report’s most controversial passage states that militia “most commonly associate with third-party political groups” and support presidential candidates such as Ron Paul, former Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate last year.

[Lt. John Hotz of the Missouri State Highway Patrol]said using those or similar factors to determine whether someone could be a terrorist is not profiling. He said people who display signs or bumper stickers from such groups are not in danger of harassment from police.

“It’s giving the makeup of militia members and their political beliefs,” Hotz said of the report. “It’s not saying that everybody who supports these candidates is involved in a militia. It’s not even saying that all militias are bad.”

Saying that the report gives the makeup of a group and yet fails to provide analysis is exactly the kind of thing that creates confusion. At some point the report might as well say militia members breathe the air, eat food, and wear clothing. No surprise that non-militia members would be offended and up in arms (pun intended) about being lumped in with dangerous militias. On the other hand, those offended have not been entirely rational in their responses either.

At a “Tea Party” to protest wasteful government spending Thursday in Flat Branch Park, several people displaying the Revolutionary War-replica “Don’t Tread On Me” flag were upset to learn the MIAC report lists the banner as a “militia symbol.”

“That’s insane,” said Doug Wendt looking at the MIAC document. “That is not a militia symbol. That is American history. This is historic. The only animosity” American colonists “ever directed with this was towards England.”

Meanings change and imagery is adopted and manipulated. Control can be lost. The swastika is the obvious example. It has had its meaning changed irrevocably, regardless of history before Nazi Germany. Moreover, a symbol of animosity is not exactly a neutral spot to take a position with. I can see why some militias might want to appropriate it but even the peace symbol could be appropriated, which takes us back to breathing air. This is a red herring to the issue of detecting threats and profiling. It isn’t easy, and it requires oversight and transparency. The real story is that a horribly bad job was done by MIAC, oversight was missing, but transparency (albeit a leak) led to a retraction. Let us hope someone gives this more thought the next time they try and help law enforcement officers identify threats to their own safety, as well as the safety of others. I suspect if someone were to compare the recent Oakland police slayings with those in Pittsburgh and correlate just the case facts, it would produce a more tangible threat analysis than one that tries to create a link to political affiliation or speech.

Evolution of Morality

A New York Times Op-Ed makes a compelling argument for new understandings of morality:

Like bees, humans have long lived or died based on their ability to divide labor, help each other and stand together in the face of common threats. Many of our moral emotions and intuitions reflect that history. We don’t just care about our individual rights, or even the rights of other individuals. We also care about loyalty, respect, traditions, religions. We are all the descendents of successful cooperators.

This is a very helpful explanation the role of compliance as a social network phenomenon rather than a top-down system.

There are times, often the most important moments in our lives, when in fact we do use reason to override moral intuitions, and often those reasons — along with new intuitions — come from our friends.

Or…maybe they come from industry experts and regulators.

Krakow Pays Bounty for Pigeons

Perhaps you were wondering how to finance your next trip to Krakow, Poland. Maybe you also like killing birds. Problem solved. The Krakow Post reports:

“The programme is very progressive,” explained Mateusz Kierewicz, a local councilman and the main proponent of the new legislation. “The city’s pigeon problem has simply grown too large to ignore, and we needed to find a way to motivate citizens to take matters into their own hands, so to speak.” Beginning next month, each person that kills and brings in a pigeon to a police station will receive 10 zloty cash, tax-free – and there are no limits to how many pigeons each person can bring in.

Progressive? I suspect something was lost in translation. Are there restrictions on methods used to kill the pigeons? What about side-effects? Will someone be liable if they kill numerous other species of birds, for example, while trying to eliminate the pigeons?

Right off the top of my head I would suggest they try to reintroduce predator species like falcons since that would be far more attractive to life in the city, as well as visitors, compared with people sitting in the square spreading poison or shooting wildly at anything that looks pigeon-like.

Aside from the practical issues with the legislation, there are also numerous historic perspectives that might suggest it is a bad plan. Supposedly the pigeons helped the prince of Silesia, Henry the Fourth Probus, make a pilgrimage in the 13th Century to ask for the Pope’s blessing. The story goes something like this: The Pope requires a big payment to bless Henry’s plan to be king. The Prince is unable to get locals to contribute (apparently he would have lost an election, had there been one in those days) so in desperation he turns to a witch for help. She agrees and then turns all his knights into pigeons. Why? Maybe she disliked knights. Maybe she liked pigeons. I haven’t found a good translation yet. Anyway, the flying knight-birds peck pebbles from St. Mary’s Tower, which turn to gold when they fall into the square. Henry then takes his massive trove of gold but he blows it all on parties before he gets even close to Rome. Thus, the pigeons are really the knights of Henry. Another story tells of how a brown pigeon helped save the city of Krakow from evil attackers by carrying a message of hope.

Although I can understand the sentiment behind another “pest” elimination program for Krakow surely there could be a more sensible approach. Giant pigeon live traps, for example, that become exhibits of their own perhaps as a memorial to Prince Henry. Ontario, Canada has posted a list of Alternative Controls for Pigeons that is actually designed to help protect predator populations like the Peregrine Falcon.

Exclusion Methods: include habitat modification by reducing the pest bird’s access to food, water and roosting/loafing areas and by keeping out pest birds by using custom-designed sheet metal or plastic covers on ledges, sills, overhangs etc. Other exclusion tools include: netting, porcupine coil, spider wire, wire, electrified wires, eye balloons and sticky repellents

The advantages of these methods are that the birds are not killed and the control is comparatively long-lasting.

Trapping: is especially effective against pigeons, however, as with the use of toxicants or bird repellents trapping requires pre-baiting and luring pigeons to the chosen feeding bait site. Where a group of birds are roosting or feeding in a confined and isolated area, trapping should be considered the primary control tactic.

That says to me that trapping and exclusion combined could not only solve the problem, but increase tourism revenues and respect the historic importance of pigeons to Krakow. Exclusion methods also could motivate locals as it would generate work and opportunities for innovation.