Mayor Frey called it “shocking” that Trump would invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops to Minneapolis.

Shocking? It’s not shocking.

That’s like saying it was a shock when Trump put up Andrew “concentration camp and genocide” Jackson’s portrait in the White House.

Trump in 2016 said he could murder someone on 5th Avenue, and he meant back then what he has been doing now. He campaigned in 2024 explicitly on using the military domestically. He’s been threatening the Insurrection Act for a year. The 11th Airborne is on standby in Alaska because the military has been getting signals for a decade that they will be used to setup a dictatorship.

The shock was available many, many years ago. Everything since has been the obvious, slow end of democracy.

The last piece was the budget. That’s why Venezuelan oil being seized by America and sold for billions means Trump has no hurdles left.

What’s Already Built

Did you know the concentration camps exist already? ICE plans are headed towards 100,000 beds, to hold political opponents to Trump. Warehouse facilities are being snapped up, designed to hold 10,000 people each, with poor ventilation, inadequate plumbing, and built for things not humans. Notably, already 48% of current detainees have no criminal record, a percentage that is expected to go way, way up.

The troops are deployed. National Guard already rolled into DC, Memphis, and 19 states to prove they would. “Rapid response forces for civil disturbances” were created by executive order. The Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy prioritizes domestic political operations over foreign threats. Venezuelan oil seized by the military and sold with profits going to a bank account in Qatar for the President, means zero accountability.

You read that right. The American military invaded Venezuela to seize assets and create independent funding to enable their shift to domestic violence, bypassing any and all Congressional oversight.

The legal architecture is in place. DOJ investigating elected officials for public statements. Courts being ignored when inconvenient.

The Historical Base Rate

I looked at authoritarian cases since 1900 where an elected leader attempted Trump-like consolidation.

Mussolini, Italy	1922-25	Consolidated
Hitler, Germany	1933-34	Consolidated
Franco, Spain	1939-75	36 years, died in bed
Pinochet, Chile	1973-90	17 years, never convicted
Marcos, Philippines	1972-86	14 years, then military split
Orbán, Hungary	2010-present	Consolidated
Putin, Russia	2000-present	Consolidated
Erdoğan, Turkey	2014-present	Consolidated
—
Kapp Putsch, Germany	1920	General strike, 4 days
Nixon, US	1974	Elite defection
Gandhi, India	1977	Called election, lost
Poland	2015-23	Electoral defeat before full capture
Bolsonaro, Brazil	2023	Military refused

Success rate once security services are aligned and no elite defection occurs within 18-24 months: over 80%.

We’re six months away from a lock into the wrong pattern.

The cases where consolidation failed: Kapp Putsch (1920)—general strike shut down the economy in 4 days. Nixon (1974)—elite defection when Goldwater said he’d be convicted. Marcos (1986)—military split plus mass mobilization. Gandhi (1977)—called an election and lost. Poland (2023)—electoral defeat before full capture.

The pattern: elite defection plus mass mobilization, or genuine electoral loss before the system is fully captured.

The Window

The 2026 midterms are in 10 months, so it’s the next six that really matter.

The administration already attacked election infrastructure—purging voter rolls, restricting poll access, limiting election authority independence, gerrymandering maps the Supreme Court allows.

If 2026 elections are compromised, the historical base rate says American democracy is over. The Trump regime ends only when he dies, or the military splits, or the economy collapses so badly the elite defects.

Franco ruled for 36 years and died in bed. Pinochet held power for 17 years and was never convicted. Orbán is at 14 years and counting. Hitler committed suicide.

The window is the next six months.

Because after Trump reaches capture, the base rate for recovery drops to single digits until something breaks catastrophically.

What Closed Windows Look Like

Mussolini consolidated in roughly 18 months. Hitler in about 14. In both cases, people who could have acted earlier said it was “too soon” to panic, then “too late” to resist.

The people performing shock at each predictable step—the mayors, the pundits, the institutional voices—are telling you they won’t act. Their role apparently is to narrate the closing of the window, not to keep it open.

The question is whether anything remains that will stop fascism now, given a historical record is not encouraging about what that something might be.

What stopped it before: general strikes, elite defection, military splits, mass mobilization sustained long enough to matter, or world war.

What didn’t stop it: public statements and lawsuits that get ignored, faith in institutions already captured.

The window is nearly closed.

As a long time advocate and expert in cyberattacks, I call bullshit on Venezuela operations.

150 aircraft. City-wide blackout. Substations reduced to rubble. Over 40 dead. All this just to arrest one guy and his wife at a known location, after months of constant expensive CIA surveillance.

This is the most obnoxious attack I’ve ever studied in forty years, including Hegseth’s flaccidly failed Houthi attacks, clearly disproportionate and (I’m not a lawyer)… apparently illegal. Someone wanted to destroy infrastructure and prevent it being used again. Were they expecting the contract to rebuild, or expecting to sell it?

Calling this precision is like reclassifying a gold-plated toilet as a disposable cup when taxpayers complain about cost. Throwing records of billions wasted into a shredder doesn’t make anything better. We all saw the gold-plated toilet, right?

And when did the NYT turn into a laundry for dirty government tricks?

Cyberattack in Venezuela Demonstrated Precision of U.S. Capabilities

Oh did it? I see the debunked atomic bomb theory of victory. American politicians (i.e. military-industrial-congressional complex) want everyone to buy into expensive new technology and ignore what actually happened on the ground. The Soviet invasion of Manchuria is what compelled Japan to surrender in WWII. But Americans apparently are still being treated by the NYT as suckers for a “clean tech” narrative. Their false “demonstrated precision” story serves the same function today as 1945.

Let me explain, for those not inside cyberattack circles, because this is some disturbing revisionism by the NYT.

Back in 2019 the NYT told us that Maduro was lying about US cyberattacks – no evidence, just poor maintenance. The largest power outage in the country’s history. At least 43 deaths. Infrastructure decay.

Now in 2026 the NYT says US cyberattack “demonstrated precision of capabilities” because 150 aircraft pounded the city into rubble in a loudly claimed American demonstration of might.

The same paper that dismissed Maduro’s 2019 accusations as paranoid dictator propaganda is now laundering the actual 2026 attack as a technical achievement.

You can’t use over a hundred planes to bomb critical infrastructure and frame it as a multi-domain demonstration of “precision, reversible” cyberattacks.

More to the point, you can’t heavily bomb a city’s power grid to serve an arrest warrant and call it light police work.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL) Criteria

Test	Standard	Source
Military Necessity	Force must be necessary to achieve a legitimate military objective. Less destructive alternatives must be unavailable or impractical.	Hague Conventions; Customary IHL Rule 14
Distinction	Parties must distinguish between combatants and civilians, and between military objectives and civilian objects. Attacks may only be directed at military objectives.	Geneva Conventions Additional Protocol I, Art. 48, 51-52
Proportionality	Expected civilian harm must not be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.	Additional Protocol I, Art. 51(5)(b), 57
Precaution	All feasible precautions must be taken to minimize civilian harm. Advance warning must be given unless circumstances do not permit.	Additional Protocol I, Art. 57-58
Humanity	Weapons and methods that cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering are prohibited.	Hague Convention IV; Additional Protocol I, Art. 35

Jus ad Bellum Criteria (Right to War)

Test	Standard	Source
Just Cause	Use of force requires self-defense against armed attack or UN Security Council authorization.	UN Charter Art. 2(4), 51; Chapter VII
Right Authority	Only legitimate authorities may authorize military force. Unilateral action without UNSC approval is presumptively unlawful.	UN Charter Art. 39-42
Right Intention	Force must be used for stated legitimate purpose, not territorial gain, regime change, or resource acquisition.	Customary International Law
Last Resort	All reasonable peaceful alternatives must be exhausted before force is employed.	UN Charter Art. 2(3), 33
Proportionality (ad bellum)	Overall harm caused by intervention must not exceed harm prevented. Scope of force must match scope of threat.	ICJ Nicaragua v. United States (1986)
Reasonable Chance of Success	Military action must have reasonable prospect of achieving its stated objectives.	Just War Theory; Customary IL

Applied: Operation Absolute Resolve (Venezuela, January 3, 2026)

Test	Assessment	Result
Just Cause	US claims law enforcement action on narcoterrorism indictment. No armed attack by Venezuela. No UNSC authorization. “Inherent constitutional authority” is domestic legal theory, not international law.	FAIL
Right Authority	No UN Security Council authorization. No congressional declaration of war. Executive action only.	FAIL
Right Intention	Trump stated US will “run the country” and rebuild oil infrastructure. María Corina Machado (democratic opposition leader) dismissed. Openly stated resource/regime objectives far beyond any law enforcement claim.	FAIL
Last Resort	Trump claims phone call to Maduro offering surrender. No evidence of exhausted diplomatic channels, sanctions review, or international negotiation.	FAIL
Military Necessity	Objective: arrest one man at known, surveilled location. Method: 150 aircraft, city-wide blackout, infrastructure destruction. Less destructive alternatives clearly available given intelligence penetration.	FAIL
Distinction	Civilian power grid deliberately targeted. Substations serving residential areas destroyed. “Lights of Caracas were largely turned off” per Trump.	FAIL
Proportionality (in bello)	40+ killed including civilians. 3+ million affected by blackout. Hospitals, water systems, communications disrupted. Ongoing infrastructure damage 12+ days later. Military kidnapping of Maduro.	FAIL
Precaution	No advance warning to civilian population. Operation conducted at 2 AM to maximize surprise. Media (NYT) warned to suppress information.	FAIL
Proportionality (ad bellum)	Scale of intervention (invasion-level force) vastly exceeds stated threat (criminal fugitives). Precedent: any nation can now militarily extract foreign leaders under domestic indictments.	FAIL
Reasonable Success	Maduro kidnapped, yet stable transition cancelled and regime apparatus uncertain, with Maduro’s own replacement now president.	UNCERTAIN

Venezuela wasn’t political intercourse with other means; it was intentionally and unnecessarily overwhelming force dressed up as law enforcement dressed up as cyber precision. That’s three layers of misdirection and disinformation.

Note on “Law Enforcement” Framing: The Trump administration blows tens of millions to rebrand defense into a “War Department,” demands bombing civilians in small boats be seen as a “Drug War,” and now wants to call bombing critical infrastructure “law enforcement with military support” under a theory of inherent presidential authority that no international body recognizes. International law does not permit military operations in sovereign territory to execute domestic criminal warrants. Even the Noriega invasion (1989), widely condemned as illegal, had trigger events and threats, OAS consultation, congressional notification, and a treaty basis that Venezuela entirely lacks. Rebranding defense to war, announcing unilateral intention to go to war, and then retroactively calling it all “law enforcement” doesn’t change legal character under IHL or the UN Charter.

Soviet propaganda called Molotov’s bombs “bread baskets” for the hungry, to invade Finland; Trump calls his infrastructure bombs “law enforcement” for drugs, to arrest one Venezuelan in a well-known location. Same propaganda technique, same function: euphemism as war crime laundering.

Sources: Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocols (1949, 1977); UN Charter (1945); Hague Conventions (1899, 1907); ICJ Nicaragua v. United States (1986); ICRC Customary IHL Database; Rome Statute of the ICC (1998).